Seven 2024 Senate races that will determine Schumer’s hold on power

December 26, 2023 06:00 AM

The race for control of the U.S. Senate in 2024 is already in full swing as Republicans plot their strategy for flipping the chamber.

There are a total of 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans — and nearly all competitive seats are currently held by Democrats, putting them on the defensive as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) tries to maintain his slim majority.

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Currently, Democrats and the independents who caucus with them hold 51 seats in the chamber. Of the Senate Democrats up for reelection, seven are in states that went for former President Donald Trump in 2016, 2020, or both. There are no Republican seats up in states won by either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or President Joe Biden in 2020.

After Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced his decision to retire in mid-November, the 2024 landscape became even more difficult for Senate Democrats. Without a longtime incumbent, Republicans now have one of their best opportunities to pick up a seat in the Senate because West Virginia has been trending ruby red.

Senate Republicans have also said they will be keeping a close eye on a race in New Jersey when indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is up for reelection. While the state votes traditionally blue, a federal prosecution of the New Jersey senator could give Republicans an opening to make the race more competitive.

Here are the seven swing Senate races to watch in 2024 that will determine what party controls the upper chamber.

Montana

Incumbent: Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT)

Tester’s seat is a top target for Republicans hoping to flip the state red. The Montana senator, who has held on to the seat since 2007, has proven to be a difficult candidate to oust for Republicans.

Election 2024 Senate Montana — Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) speaks during a town hall.

So far, the two GOP candidates who have jumped in the race are former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy and former Montana Secretary of State Brad Johnson. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) has expressed interest in running but has not declared his intentions.

Sheehy was recruited by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and has the endorsements of Sens. Steve Daines (R-MT), Tom Cotton (R-AK), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), and John Thune (R-SD) and Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT).

Trump carried the state by 16 percentage points in 2020, less than he won it in 2016. However, national Republicans are pointing out that Democratic state lawmakers lost races in Great Falls and Cascade County, and Republicans gained a supermajority in the state legislature.

Ohio

Incumbent: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Brown is facing his toughest reelection campaign yet in a state that has been trending red over the past decade.

All eyes are now focused on Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, who was recently endorsed by Trump in the Ohio Senate primary.

Competing against Moreno are Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan, both of whom have largely distanced themselves from Trump in their Senate bids.

Trump carried Ohio twice, and his endorsement was critical in getting now-Sen. J.D. Vance over the finish line in last year’s GOP primary. No matter who becomes the GOP nominee, the general election will be a marquee race this cycle as Brown works to overcome a reliably red electorate.

Arizona

Incumbent: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)

Less than a year ahead of a major election in one of the nation’s premier battleground states, experts on both sides of the aisle agree on one thing: They have no idea how Arizona’s Senate race in 2024 is going to play out.

The race could feature Sinema, who left her party to become an independent last year, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), the likely Democratic nominee who announced his run in January, and Republican Kari Lake, a polarizing conservative who lost her election for governor last year. This all could ultimately result in a three-way race in a state that is 34% Republican, 34% independent, and 30% Democratic, according to Arizona’s data.

Sinema has not said if she is running for a second term after leaving the Democratic Party. Lake will first need to defeat Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in a GOP primary.

The NRSC is attempting to sway the GOP electorate away from Sinema and Gallego with a new ad recently titled “A Choice.” The spot claims Sinema votes with the president “100%” of the time without mentioning the headaches the Arizona independent has caused for President Joe Biden, at times derailing his agenda. It also focuses on Gallego, calling him a “deadbeat dad,” diving into his personal life and divorce from Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego. The messaging suggests national Republicans are attempting to transform the three-way race into a battle between a Republican and two Democrats.

Pennsylvania

Incumbent: Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA)

Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is about to face his toughest reelection battle yet. Republicans coalesced around Republican Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive, as soon as he jumped into the race in September.

McCormick’s candidacy is a win for Senate Republicans, who have spent months working to recruit him to run against Casey, a three-term senator who won by 13 percentage points in 2018. Last cycle, McCormick lost narrowly to celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz in the Senate primary. Oz went on to lose to Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) in the general election, which contributed to Democrats keeping control of the Senate. Ever since, GOP leadership has focused on McCormick running again, acknowledging he could be their best shot at flipping Casey’s seat.

McCormick’s candidacy will serve as a litmus test of whether Republicans can flip a seat in a state that has been a battleground state in the past. The Keystone State had a Republican and Democratic senator for more than a decade until Sen. Pat Toomey retired in January. Casey is among a group of five Senate Democrats who hail from states that Biden won by less than 4 percentage points in 2020.

Nevada

Incumbent: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV)

Even though Nevada has become a slightly more Democratic state than some of the other states on the list, Republicans see it as a potential pickup opportunity after the state voted for Biden by 2 points.

Republicans will have a robust primary even though the NRSC has made it clear it would like Army veteran Sam Brown to become the 2024 GOP nominee. Brown ran in the primary last cycle but lost to Adam Laxalt, who went on to lose the general election to incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) by only 8,000 votes.

Brown will face off in the primary against Trump’s former ambassador to Iceland, Jeff Gunter, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Tony Grady, former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant, and four other Republicans in the race.

Wisconsin

Incumbent: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)

National Republicans have their sights on Baldwin’s seat, a very competitive battleground state that swung from Trump to Biden in 2020. They believe they’ve found a credible candidate to challenge Baldwin in businessman Eric Hovde, who has decided to announce a run in early 2024, according to multiple sources, after months of courting by the NRSC. Businessman Scott Mayer and ex-Sheriff David Clarke are also contemplating a run.

Baldwin still hasn’t officially drawn a competitor yet, which could be a sign that Republicans aren’t as hopeful about their chances of winning the Senate seat in the Midwestern state that will ultimately host the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July.

Michigan

Incumbent: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) is retiring.

Michigan has not been as fruitful for Republicans in recent years after Biden carried the state by 3 points. Democrats also saw success at the polls in 2022.

On the Democratic side, the majority of the party has coalesced around Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI). Slotkin will face a primary from actor Hill Harper, former state Rep. Leslie Love, and two other Democrats.

House Homeland Security Committee member Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) — Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI).

Republican Mike Rogers, who served in Congress for 14 years and led the House Intelligence Committee, appears to be the favorite in the primary race.

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Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) endorsed Rogers in the GOP primary, marking Rogers’s fourth endorsement from a sitting senator since announcing his Senate run earlier this year. Sens. Katie Britt (R-AL) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) offered their endorsements to Rogers last week, following the backing of National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Daines, who threw his support behind Rogers when he announced his campaign in September.

Rogers has not yet won the GOP nomination and is facing a crowded field that includes former Rep. Peter Meijer and former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, among others.