Sinema reelection chances dim as Gallego dominates in polling

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) is already facing an uphill battle for reelection despite not announcing her 2024 plans, as polls show Arizona voters may be ready for new blood.

A poll from Public Policy Polling shared with the Hill found that Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is dominating early numbers, receiving 41% of voter support compared to Republican Kari Lake‘s 36%. Sinema is trailing at 15% in a hypothetical three-way matchup, with 8% saying they weren’t sure.

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Even without the presence of Lake, Sinema is falling behind, according to the poll. In a three-way race with Gallego and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, Lake’s top Republican primary opponent, Gallego still leads with 40% of the vote. Lamb followed behind with 31%, and Sinema received 16%, with 13% saying they were not sure.

Sinema, who switched political affiliations from Democratic to independent shortly after the 2022 midterm elections, has remained silent on her plans for the next election cycle. However, polling shows that securing her seat for another term may be difficult.

While 23% said Sinema should run again for Arizona Senate, 58% of the poll’s respondents said she should not. Her favorability rating lands around 26%, compared to her unfavorability rating of 52%.

Sinema’s campaign has reportedly been circulating a plan outlining ways she can appeal to voting blocs across Democrats, independents, and Republicans, but Lake’s candidacy is likely to hinder the Arizona senator’s election chances.

The former Arizona gubernatorial candidate filed paperwork on Oct. 3 to run for Senate in 2024 after months of rising speculation. She ran as a Republican against now-Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) in the 2022 midterm elections and has yet to concede her loss, pushing claims of election interference.

Lake’s hard-line conservative views have caused establishment Arizona Republicans to fear a repeat of 2022, when several hard-line Republicans beat centrist GOP candidates in the primaries but lost to Democrats in the general elections. Several of those who lost their elections push claims of voter fraud, similar to former President Donald Trump’s reaction when he lost the 2020 election.

Though she lost to Hobbs, Lake has built a loyal following among Trump’s supporters in the state, which she is hoping will help her in a Senate matchup.

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This could also draw some Republican and independent voters away from Sinema, particularly the 13% and 8% in the hypothetical matchups who have yet to select a candidate. The seat is rated as a “toss-up” by CookPoliticalReport.

The Public Policy Polling poll, commissioned by Gallego’s campaign, was conducted between Oct. 6 and Oct. 7 with 522 Arizona voters surveyed. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.