Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) fundraising plummeted to its lowest level in years during the fourth quarter, a signal for many that the Arizona Independent may not be pursuing a critical deadline to gather tens of thousands of signatures to appear on the ballot.

Sinema left the Democratic Party a little over a year ago to become an Independent. She still has not officially decided whether she is running for another term, which could turn into a three-way race with progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), the likely Democratic nominee, and Kari Lake, who is the front-running Republican candidate for the United States Senate.

To appear on the ballot as an Independent, Sinema would need to gather 42,303 signatures by April 4. She has yet to file her statement of interest with the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office in order to begin gathering qualified signatures. According to her campaign finance report, she also didn’t spend any money on signature-gathering through the end of 2023. 

ELECTION 2024: FOLLOW LATEST COVERAGE

“I would expect someone who is running to have been ramped up last year,” said Jon Sutton, who runs a Democratic consulting firm in Arizona that gathers signatures. “I don’t see any logistical reason for her delay in this way. Every day she waits, makes this more difficult.” 

Sutton said Sinema would need to gather about 65,000 raw signatures to get to the 42,303 she would need due to some being ruled invalid. He also estimated the Arizona senator would need to spend between $500,000 and $1 million on ballot access if she were to begin gathering those signatures today. Sutton said the logistics that go into this kind of operation are becoming even more expensive as the days go by.

“Prices typically rise, employee wages rise, there’s not a limitless pool of people who are trained to do this,” he said. “When you’re talking about the volume of signatures she’s looking at — that can really raise the prices here as well.”

Her campaign doesn’t appear to be in the financial situation to launch that kind of effort after her fundraising numbers came out this week. The senator spent more than she brought in, collecting $595,000 in the last quarter, the lowest since the beginning of 2021. The fundraising total is less than one-fifth of what Gallego raised in the same period.

Sinema’s campaign spent $797,000; most of the cash went toward security and travel. She spent $26,000 on video production and a voter file subscription, which could indicate some interest in ramping up a bid. However, she reported $94,000 in travel and lodging expenses and $189,000 in security costs. 

Sinema still has $10.6 million cash on hand, the most of any of her prominent challengers, but that figure has not changed much over the past year.  In comparison, Gallego has about $6.5 million on hand after raising $13.8 million for the year, according to the filings. Lake’s report showed she raised $2.1 million in the final quarter, her first as a candidate, and spent about half of the total.

“Look, I have no direct knowledge, but just her actions and fundraising speaks louder than words – this is not a candidate who is running,” said a Sinema ally who spoke on the condition of anonymity in an effort to reflect candidly on the situation. “As much as I’d like her to run, and I think the people of Arizona are best represented by her, this is not the way you start one of the most politically challenging campaigns of your career.”

Senate Democrats are anxiously awaiting Sinema’s decision. If she decided not to run, it would take the pressure off the national party, which has remained neutral up until now. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) have not said whether they would back Sinema over Gallego if she were to decide to run again. DSCC typically supports incumbents, but after the Arizona senator left the party in 2022, it’s even more unclear.

“We have open lines of communications with both teams,” said an aide at the DSCC, speaking to the Washington Post, referring to Gallego’s and Sinema’s staff. “We will not allow Kari Lake to win this seat.”

However, Democrats in the state are anxious to get the process going and said Sinema’s indecision could prevent valuable fundraising dollars from flowing into the state.

“I think national Democrats just don’t want to touch this right now, and without a decision from Sinema it makes it hard for us to strategize and figure out how to spend valuable resources,” said an Arizona Democratic strategist, who preferred to stay anonymous. “Most of us are lining up behind Gallego and it’s just awkward to not have any direction from the national party, since we usually follow their lead, especially less than a year until the general election.”

“Democrats overwhelmingly in the state of Arizona will vote against Sinema, mark my words,” the person said.

Sinema’s team continues to say she is focused on her work in the nation’s capital, which includes negotiations over a high-stakes immigration bill, and that she has not made a decision about whether she’s going to pursue another term.

“Kyrsten remains laser-focused on continuing her work making a meaningful impact in the lives of Arizonans across the state ― not on campaign politics,” a spokesperson said.

However, Sutton said starting the process of gathering the signatures and submitting the qualifying paperwork to get the ball rolling isn’t a process that would interfere with Sinema’s workload on Capitol Hill.

“Calling a company like mine and writing them a check is a total mental burden is a ridiculous excuse,” Sutton said. 

The senator scolded reporters who asked about her fundraising instead of the negotiations surrounding the immigration deal on Wednesday. 

“Not talking about that at all,” Sinema said. “Why are you wasting your question on that? I want to be clear to all of you: total waste of a question. I’m here to talk about substance.”

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Sinema’s political path as a third-party candidate without the help of party infrastructure during an election year is something that many Democratic strategists predict would be a major challenge.

“Before she left the Democratic Party, she had this incredible field and deep spring of fundraisers of small and high dollar donors to constantly tap into the well. Now, she has none of those, and that makes it incredibly hard,” said Democratic strategist Jon Reinish. “So, to think that she’s going to self-fund largely through some middle ground. There are not a lot of independent funders, especially in an election year.”