Slovakia Goes to the Polls and May Distance Itself From Ukraine – Bratislava Has Banned Grain From Kiev – Ex-PM Robert Fico Poised to Win and Turn Country Away From War

In the turning of the tide against European support for Ukraine, the upcoming Slovakian elections may well become a major development, if frontrunner former Prime Minister Robert Fico is elected.

Sandwiched between Hungary and Poland, Slovakia shares with its neighbors the distinction of being the 3 countries that enacted ban against Ukrainian grain – but that can be followed by a serious curtailing of military and even political support for Ukraine.

Slovakia’s longest-serving prime minister, Fico was forced out of office in 2018, following the biggest mass protests Bratislava had seen since the communist era.

But now, the popular reaction against the war in Ukraine created a path back to power to Fico.

His victory would test the European Union’s ability to remain united against Russia, especially after Poland’s recent row with Kyiv.

Bloomberg reported:

“Slovaks will vote on Sept. 30 in a tight election, and Fico has tapped into concerns over the fallout from the conflict. In a country of 5.4 million people who are the most pro-Russian in the region, he has vowed to end military aid to Ukraine, called Slovakia’s president an ‘American agent’ and opposes NATO membership for its war-ravaged neighbor.

‘Fico has no problem crossing red lines’, said Boris Zala, a Smer co-founder who now works on policy papers for think tank Progressive Forum in Bratislava. ‘He will do anything to win more votes’.”

A member of EU and NATO, Slovakia is geopolitically important. It has generally been strong on its support for Ukraine – but the fact is that surveys showed that more than half of Slovaks blame the West or Ukraine for the war.

But still, Slovakia sent weapons, accommodated refugees and backed all sanctions on Russia, hurting its energy supplies.

“The return of Fico, 59, could quickly change that, bringing into question Slovakia’s cooperation with NATO given his fierce criticism of the alliance and the US. It would also boost the influence of Orban, who has opposed sanctions and weapons deliveries.”

Fico was the PM who led Slovakia to join the euro in 2009, but now is not seen as a pro EU political force.

“’Fico’s goals will trigger opposition and dissent abroad, and that could lead to Slovakia’s isolation’, said Grigorij Meseznikov, the president of the Institute for Public Affairs think tank, who has followed the nation’s politics for over 30 years. While still remaining in the EU, he will pull Slovakia ‘outside the European mainstream’, he said.”

Fico’s advantage in the polls is of three percentage points over its main rival, the Progressive Slovakia. The lead has narrowed from five points in March.

Fico is also not a big fan of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, calling it a ‘far-off prospect’ due to the ongoing war, corruption and democratic shortcomings.

Reuters reported:

“‘We are convinced it is illusory to deal with this question at a time when a sharp military conflict goes on in Ukraine’, Fico said by email when asked if he supported Ukraine’s EU membership and the opening of entry talks this year.

‘In the future we can imagine that Ukraine has the closest possible cooperation with the European Union, including membership. But for that, it has to meet conditions like all other countries aspiring for membership had met.

We all know for example that Ukraine belongs among the most corrupt countries in the world and the existing government regime is far from democratic standards’.”

Fico pledged to halt Slovak arms supplies to Kiev, and has taken a more pro-Russian view than most western allies on the conflict. ‘We do not want World War III’, he has stated.

“He said he did not support arms shipments through Slovakia to Ukraine, but added it may not be prevented completely because ‘the American army can do what it wants’ under the cooperation treaty with the United States.”