Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has seen significant momentum behind her campaign in the later stages of the 2024 Republican presidential primary, particularly in New Hampshire. However, this might not be enough for her to compete with former President Donald Trump in her home state of South Carolina.

Haley boasts a long history in South Carolina politics, after serving several terms as a state house representative and eventually becoming governor. She was elected to the governorship in 2010 and reelected in 2014. After gaining national popularity for her performance in the position, she left the post to join former President Donald Trump’s administration as ambassador to the United Nations.

Now, she faces off against him in the 2024 Republican primary race, in which she has emerged in the polls as the second place candidate behind Trump.

Despite Haley’s South Carolinian roots and history in the state’s government, “it is Trump country down here,” said Pickens County Republican Chairman Bob Fetterly in an interview with the Washington Examiner. As a county chairman, Fetterly won’t be making any endorsement until after the primary.

South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick, who is also Co-Chairman of the Republican National Committee, explained that not only do South Carolina Republicans tend to be “more conservative than most of them are nationally,” but there is “a more diverse grouping of conservatives.”

McKissick, due to his leadership roles in the national and state parties, also has not endorsed a candidate. He explained that the party has seen growth in more rural areas, specifically from Democratic defectors and independents, who he said tend to be more populist-leaning politically.

While the latest Republican primary polling in South Carolina has demonstrated an upward trend for Haley over the last several months, Trump’s significant double-digit lead has only endured, with Haley’s gains primarily coming from those who were previously supporting others or were undecided.

In the latest Emerson College Polling survey, the former president maintained his majority support among South Carolina Republicans, with 54%. Haley posted a notable 25%, which was still 29 points behind Trump.

Winthrop University Professor and Executive Director of the Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research Scott Huffmon also stressed that Trump is still dominant in the Palmetto State, despite Haley’s connection and various pitches to voters.

“Everything I’m seeing from polls I trust, and then overestimations from even polls I don’t trust, are that Trump is still heavily dominant,” he said.

Haley’s strongest challenge to Trump has developed in fellow early state New Hampshire, where a Tuesday poll put the former U.N. ambassador within single digits of him.

Asked if momentum from a potential New Hampshire win could propel Haley and garner the support of her home state voters, Fetterly said that it wouldn’t.

“South Carolina has no love for New Hampshire,” he said. The Pickens County chairman added that it wouldn’t come as a surprise to South Carolina voters that she would perform well in the Granite State.

Managing Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics Kyle Kondik echoed this point. “South Carolina has a more ideologically conservative and evangelical Christian electorate than New Hampshire, which, comparatively speaking, has one of less religious and less conservative GOP electorates in the country,” he said.

University of South Carolina Political Scientist David Darmofal said one of the issues she will have to deal with in South Carolina is the “strong support” Trump holds among evangelicals. He noted that during the 2016 Republican presidential primary, 72% of Republican primary voters self-identified as ‘born again or evangelical Christians.’”

Since then, support for Trump among the prominent Christian group has endured, continuing to mystify his opponents, who have often tried to leverage the former president’s past comments, scandals, and legal troubles to dent his popularity.

According to Fetterly, Republicans in the state are also “absolutely against” Haley, “In fact, the only negative I hear regarding the Trump campaign is people that say they will not vote for him if she is on his ticket,” he claimed.

“They don’t want her anywhere near the White House,” Fetterly added.

One of the concerns raised by Republican voters about Haley is regarding her foreign policy positions and her potential to be a “globalist.” Despite recent criticism, Huffmon said, Haley “was the South Carolina queen [of] the Tea Party.”

“She was always extremely conservative,” he reiterated.

However, Fetterly likened Haley to former House Speaker Paul Ryan, another champion of the Tea Party. He claimed South Carolinians used to believe in Ryan, adding he “had a great voting record, especially fiscally.”

However, Fetterly said that once Ryan “got in a position where he could be a globalist, he was all in for that.”

Huffmon pushed back on the sentiment that Haley is “part of the globalist cabal,” saying it doesn’t seem to be supported by evidence. “Her job as ambassador to the United Nations gave her the foreign policy bona fides to actually run for president, but for some others—a tiny cadre within the cadre—that ties her to so-called globalism,” he said.

Haley endorser Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), a hardline conservative, also pushed back on voter concerns over Haley on the ground in South Carolina. “People all have their opinions now, but we’ve got a long way to go,” he noted.

As for the “globalist issue,” Norman said, “I’m probably the most — if not one of the most conservative members of Congress, do you think I would back somebody that is a globalist? That is big government? That doesn’t do what they say?”

“No,” he continued.

The congressman, Haley’s only endorser on Capitol Hill, will be stumping for her in each of the early primary states, including South Carolina.

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Fetterly, however, said Norman’s choice to endorse Haley has undermined his support at home, despite his demonstrated conservative credentials. “What’s been shared with me across our party is there’s no love—No more love for Ralph Norman,” he claimed.

Huffmon explained that while quantum physics suggest “anything’s possible,” the chance for a Haley win in her home state is “incredibly remote.”