Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) had given hope in recent days that Washington could escape the kind of brinkmanship that has defined past standoffs over government funding.

He announced a deal Sunday with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on top-line spending and even signaled he may reverse course on his vow not to pass another short-term spending bill.

With a Jan. 19 partial government shutdown looming, the compromise was welcome news in the Senate, where leadership wants a funding extension while the two sides hammer out the details of that top-line agreement.

But Johnson’s Thursday acknowledgment that he is discussing whether to backtrack on the deal, just four days after announcing it, has injected uncertainty into what was already a tenuous process.

Notwithstanding a deal, Johnson is expected to push for policy riders Democrats denounce as “poison pills,” a fight he is likely to lose but nonetheless represents an attempt to appease his right flank.

He extracted small victories from Schumer on IRS and COVID-19 funding, but the spending levels agreed to last spring as part of a fight over the debt ceiling remained intact.

Johnson’s deal signaled he would not be beholden to the hard-liners who wanted deeper cuts. But his resolve apparently turned to indecision after meeting with conservatives on Thursday morning.

They walked out of his office suggesting Johnson had agreed to renegotiate with Schumer.

Johnson pushed back on those statements, telling reporters he had not made up his mind. “I’ve made no commitment. So, if you hear otherwise, it’s just simply not true,” he said.

But opening the door at all demonstrates the influence hard-liners have over Johnson if he wants to get anything done. Just one day earlier, 13 Republicans tanked a bill on the House floor in protest of the spending deal, much like they did under Speaker Kevin McCarthy before him. 

Johnson finds himself in essentially the same place as his predecessor. With a two-seat majority, he needs virtually all of his conference to keep the chamber running but is forced to compromise on must-pass legislation given Democrats’ control of the Senate and White House. 

Such compromise, inevitably interpreted as surrender by hard-liners, led to the downfall of McCarthy. Johnson understands he could be next.

Schumer indicated on Thursday he expects Johnson to abide by the deal. “We have a top-line agreement; everybody knows to get anything done, it has to be bipartisan,” he said.

And centrist Republicans have already begun to urge Johnson to “stick with his guns.”

“He’s doing the right thing. The vast majority, the 90% of us, know that it’s the best deal,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE). “We can’t let a small group … control us.”

How Johnson proceeds could determine the trajectory of his speakership. But it also has real implications for government funding.

Withdrawing from the top-line spending agreement could be the key to conservatives greenlighting a funding extension, perhaps to March, but it would set up a bigger battle in the coming months.

The conservative Freedom Caucus wants to roll back spending to fiscal 2022 levels, tantamount to a $130 billion cut, while the debt limit agreement essentially kept spending flat.

The concessions Johnson got, accelerating $10 billion in cuts to the IRS and rescinding $6 billion in COVID-19 relief funds, were interpreted as a fig leaf to conservatives, but Johnson would have trouble getting much more given Republicans marginally control a single chamber of Congress.

Johnson has made much the same argument to his conference over the last week.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), the top Republican on the Appropriations Committee, lamented Johnson’s remarks, warning that it would raise the chances of a government shutdown if he breaks the deal.

But the Senate at this point has become so accustomed to House chaos that senators’ responses were by and large muted.

“The Republicans can’t govern. All they can do is engage in political theater, and, frankly, that theater is getting pretty boring,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). “It feels like the rerun of a play that wasn’t very good the first time around.”

Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) said the topic did not even come up at the conference’s lunch on Thursday.

Republicans fear the turmoil, in aggregate, could spoil their chances of keeping the House in November. The lack of unity also denies them leverage in the very fight conservatives want to wage.

But Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI), a Democratic appropriator, predicted that Johnson would ultimately not back out of the deal he made with Schumer.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

“It’s not going to happen. I’m not at all worried,” Schatz said.

“He had a meeting with a bunch of right-wing people who will never vote for any spending bill,” he said, “and he politely accommodated them in listening. He just said he made no commitments, and the only commitment he’s made is the top lines.”

Cami Mondeaux and Reese Gorman contributed to this report.