Speaker vote: Four things to know ahead of fourth ballot

The House is poised to hold its fourth speaker vote on Wednesday, more than three weeks after Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was ousted as presiding officer.

The fourth ballot comes after weeks of chaos in the House GOP conference attempting to select a candidate who could garner 217 votes on the House floor. Republicans nominated Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) to be their fourth speaker-designate since McCarthy’s removal and will attempt to hand him the speaker’s gavel. Here is what to know ahead of the fourth speaker vote:

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Where do things stand now?

The House is scheduled to convene at 12 p.m. EDT to hold a speaker vote. The vote will be the fourth held in the past two weeks and the first since Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) failed to be elected speaker on Friday.

The House GOP held a conference roll-call vote late Tuesday evening, after Johnson was elected speaker-designate, to gauge support for the Louisiana Republican, and only three members voted “present,” while 23 were absent. Republicans appeared confident in a late-night press conference, with Johnson saying, “The House Republican majority is united.”

What happened to Tom Emmer?

Johnson was the second speaker-designate elected on Tuesday after House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) won the nomination in a vote held earlier in the day. Emmer was the third Republican selected as the GOP’s speaker nominee after House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) bowed out in previous weeks.

The Minnesota Republican’s speaker bid only lasted a couple of hours as fierce opposition to him began to materialize within the House Republican conference. Fearing that he would face similar failed House floor votes, Emmer bowed out of the speaker’s race shortly after winning the nomination, and the GOP held another internal speaker nomination process.

(AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

What are House Republicans saying?

Republicans appear to be more united behind Johnson than the other four speaker candidates, with less vocal opposition from within the GOP conference.

Various flanks of the House GOP have expressed their support for Johnson after he was elected speaker-designate, with McCarthy calling the Louisiana Republican a “friend, fighter, and principled conservative who can get the job done.” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), who was behind McCarthy’s ouster, also said on Tuesday that Johnson has his “Complete and Total Endorsement.”

Will Johnson have the votes?

Whether Johnson will have the votes on the floor is the big unknown heading into the vote at noon. The roll-call vote of the GOP conference on Tuesday night only produced three “present” votes, while the rest of the present members voted for Johnson, but there were 23 absences during that vote.

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While the total number of opponents to Johnson within the conference is unknown, the minimal opposition to him in the roll-call vote after the speaker-designate election was a notable change from the dozens of Republicans who have opposed GOP speaker-designates on the House floor this Congress. Johnson can only afford to lose four Republicans in a floor vote of the full House of Representatives.

If Johnson is unsuccessful in becoming speaker and bows out of the speaker’s race, there would be no clear front-runner for who would be selected as a fifth Republican speaker-designate.