Speaker vote: House starts at square one three weeks after McCarthy removal

A bitter race for House speaker has devolved into a free-for-all as nine candidates vie to become the third GOP nominee in three weeks.

House Republicans will hold an internal election on Tuesday to choose their next speaker-designate after pulling the nomination of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), whose candidacy stalled in the face of establishment and centrist opposition on Friday. But first, the candidates to replace him will make their case before the entire conference in a Monday evening candidate forum.

HOW HOUSE REPUBLICANS WILL PICK THEIR NEXT SPEAKER NOMINEE IN CROWDED FIELD

While nine entered the race by the noon Sunday deadline, only a handful are truly considered competitive. Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), the majority whip and two-time chairman of House Republicans’ campaign arm, is viewed as the front-runner. He has the support of ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who commands respect within the conference despite his ouster by eight of its members earlier this month.

The internal election is not likely to be resolved in a single round of voting, however. The bottom vote-getter is eliminated after each ballot, meaning it could take several before all candidates are disqualified or drop out.

Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK), the head of the Republican Study Committee, is expected to advance past the first round, while two others, Reps. Byron Donalds (R-FL) and Jack Bergman (R-MI), have attracted early endorsements from members of their home states.

The timing of a floor vote is unclear but could come as soon as Tuesday.

Jordan’s candidacy died after three failed votes on the House floor, while Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), the conference’s first pick for speaker, dropped out rather than suffer the same fate.

Each step of the way has left the party more sharply divided. Neither Scalise nor Jordan won the nomination resoundedly, and tempers have flared as factions accuse one another of sabotage and grudge-holding.

The eventual nominee will need 217 votes on the floor, an all-but-impossible feat given the Republicans’ four-seat majority. All 212 Democrats have lined up behind Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) for speaker.

The dynamic is fundamentally the same one that defined the speakership of McCarthy, who won the gavel after 15 rounds of voting and deep concessions to his right flank. A handful of hard-liners, unhappy with his decision to avoid a government shutdown, deposed him nine months later.

Democrats could bail Republicans out, helping elevate the interim speaker, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), on a temporary basis in exchange for concessions of their own. But the party has so far been content to allow Republicans to navigate their own dysfunction.

A GOP push to give McHenry expanded powers, meant as a way to get past internal divisions until January, fell apart following a conferencewide meeting on Thursday.

Since then, Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE) has proposed another possible off-ramp — a “unity pledge” to back the eventual speaker nominee that all candidates except Donalds have signed. Members of the conservative Freedom Caucus are opposed to such a pledge.

The caucus, coming off the bruising defeat of Jordan, its desired candidate in the race, called on Republicans to stay in Washington, weekends included, until a new speaker is elected.

“Intentional and unnecessary delays must end,” the group said in a Monday statement. “It serves only the lobbyists of the swamp and defenders of the status quo to continue to drag this process out.”

Emmer, should he emerge the speaker-designate, does not have the same baggage as McCarthy did with the Freedom Caucus. He counts Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), the group’s former chairman, as an ally.

But he will run into opposition from Trump allies mounting what his team has denounced as a whisper campaign against him.

If Emmer fails on the floor, the House will be thrown back into chaos, with another look being given to candidates such as Donalds and Hern.

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The general sense within the conference, according to one GOP aide, is that Republicans, confronted with a Nov. 17 deadline to fund the government and Israel engulfed in war, need to elect a speaker by the end of this week.

If they cannot, it becomes far more likely a centrist like Rep. Dave Joyce (R-OH) will introduce a resolution to empower McHenry.