Former New York Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi’s victory in a suburban New York district on Tuesday night could provide national Democrats with a road map heading into the November election.
Suozzi, who easily defeated Republican opponent Mazi Pilip to replace expelled former Republican Rep. George Santos, made immigration a centerpiece of his campaign, going on the offensive on the thorny issue that has been vexing Democrats and President Joe Biden.
As illegal border crossings reached record levels in December and a surge of immigrants flooded into New York, Suozzi flipped the narrative, blaming Republicans for playing political games after they rejected a bipartisan immigration deal in recent days, which the New York Democrat has said he would support.
Throughout his campaign, Suozzi advocated tougher border policy and often spoke about closing the U.S.-Mexico border to slow the influx of immigrants. He also took his opponent head-on, rushing to a migrant shelter in Queens to hold a press conference in response to statements from Pilip that linked him to the nation’s border crisis.
“Stop running around for Trump and start running the country,” Suozzi said, slamming Republicans in his victory speech on Tuesday.
Immigration has become one of the top election-year concerns for voters, and that was reflected across the television ads in the special election, according to Ad Impact, an advertising tracking firm.
Pilip went after Suozzi in ads on immigration issues, highlighting New York City’s woes in getting the influx of asylum-seekers under control. However, Suozzi and his allies fought back, and a political action committee supporting him ran ads touting his previous work on bipartisan immigration legislation.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) even acknowledged Suozzi seemed to have broken through with voters on the immigration issue.
“He sounded like a Republican, talking about the border and immigration,” Johnson said on Wednesday, speaking with reporters. “Everybody knows, that’s the top issue.”
Suozzi’s victory, which occurred in a district where Republicans have won every major election in the last three years, narrowed the Republican House majority to 219-213.
Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist based in New York, said national Democrats should follow Suozzi’s lead by tackling immigration head-on.
“Stop burying your head in the ground. This is one of the most important issues to voters. Tom Suozzi is giving you a playbook; rip a page out of it,” Reinish said. “It’s been a pet peeve of mine for so long — what Washington Democrats sort of live in the politics of 25 years ago, where you can just sort of ignore an issue and it’s going to go away. It’s not.”
“The border is a top issue for voters — crime and public safety, top issues for voters. Go and talk about it, confront the issue, and don’t cede ground and let the Republicans own it,” he added.
While many Democrats may view Suozzi’s win with a rosy outlook heading into a critical election year, others believe this special election result isn’t a great indicator of what is to come for national Democrats.
New York-based Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf points out that Pilip was not a very strong opponent, particularly after her initial financial disclosure drew scrutiny and was missing required information.
“His opponent had an ethical issue akin to what Santos experienced, the financial disclosure. And that was a lucky, lucky stroke at the end,” Sheinkopf said.
Sheinkopf also points out that Suozzi, 61, has spent nearly three decades in public office and is well known by the community, which could have contributed to his win. In addition, Democrats outspent Republicans 2-to-1 in the race.
“He and the Democrats probably spent $14 [million] to $15 million. That’s an awful amount of money; it’s an extraordinary amount of money,” he said. “If Republicans can raise more than Democrats, which is likely, it’ll be harder for Democrats to break through on the migration issue. It also depends on if crime is up by migrants in particular areas.”
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However, many believe Suozzi’s win represents a path for other moderate Democratic candidates in swing districts, particularly those where a surge of immigrants is straining local resources.
“I would immediately seize what I’m now comfortable calling the Suozzi playbook — and Joe Biden should do the exact same thing. So should Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester, Tammy Baldwin, etc.,” Reinish said.