However, Trump maintains a slight edge over Harris among the seven battleground states on which the race hinges. That’s a shift from a month ago when the Democratic nominee had the advantage among swing-state voters.
Both candidates are sprinting to visit the battleground states as much as possible while also adding on interviews and town halls meant to shore up support among women, men, and black voters before Nov. 5.
Harris just recently released an “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men” and is reportedly in talks to appear on the Joe Rogan podcast while Trump is set to hold an all-women town hall with Fox News this week as the election increasingly focuses on the political gender gap.
Other national polling averages show that the race for the battleground states has pinged back-and-forth between the candidates, showing that the election will be razor-thin once the votes have been added up.
With time running out before the election, the Washington Examiner reranked the battleground states according to which would be the hardest for the vice president to win.
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1. Arizona
For the first time since the swing-state scorecard has been published this year, Arizona has become the hardest battleground for Harris to win.
Trump has repeatedly hammered Harris over the border crisis in Arizona, the lone border swing state, as voters have ranked immigration one of the top two issues this cycle along with the economy.
According to RealClearPolitics, the former president has his biggest average poll lead among the battlegrounds over Harris, 48.4% to 47.3%.
Trump also leads Harris by 2 percentage points, 49% to 47%, in Arizona, according to a New York Times poll average. This is also the second poll average where his biggest lead is in the state.
Harris attempted to counter Trump’s attacks by participating in a Univision town hall last week, when a breakout moment came as the vice president consoled a woman whose mother died without achieving legal status in the United States.
But Harris also sidestepped questions about a pathway to legalization and instead slammed the “broken immigration system” and blasted Trump for scuttling a border security deal. The vice president is also deploying former President Barack Obama to stump for her in the state on Friday.
2. Georgia
Although the Peach State voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 and now has two Democratic senators, Trump has consistently led Harris in state polls.
A Washington Post poll average shows Trump leading by as much as 2 points while the RealClearPolitics average shows the former president with a 0.5-point lead, 48.3% to 47.8%. FiveThirtyEight’s poll average has Trump with a 1-point lead, 48.3% to 47.2%.
The Harris recently leaned on former President Bill Clinton to help with voter turnout in southwest Georgia. Aside from Biden’s win last presidential cycle, Clinton was the last Democrat to win the state during the 1992 cycle.
Trump, meanwhile, will participate in the all-women town hall in the state this week, as Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Jon Ossoff (D-GA) held a press call Tuesday attacking Trump over abortion.
3. North Carolina
Weeks ago, it seemed that scandal-plagued Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC) would drag down Trump in the poll numbers, giving Harris the opening to flip North Carolina blue for the first time since 2008.
But Trump nevertheless maintains a slight lead over Harris in the race, with a 0.5-point lead, 48.7% to 48.2%, according to a RealClearPolitics average. The New York Times average has Trump with a 1-point lead of 49% to 48%.
On Sunday, at a Greenville rally in the Tar Heel State, the vice president goaded Trump for not releasing his medical records, declining a second debate matchup, and refusing to participate in a 60 Minutes interview. She also slammed Trump for spreading misinformation related to Hurricanes Milton and Helene.
“It makes you wonder, why does his staff want him to hide away? One must question, one must question, are they afraid that people will see that he is too weak and unstable to lead America? Is that what’s going on?” Harris said.
4. Pennsylvania
Both Harris and Trump’s easiest path to victory next month relies on winning the Keystone State. Yet Harris is leading Trump, according to most poll averages.
The New York Times has Harris with a 1-point lead, 49% to 48%, while the Washington Post has the vice president with a 2-point lead.
FiveThirtyEight shows Harris has a narrower lead at 48.1% to 47.4%, while RealClearPolitics shows Trump slightly leading, 48.3% to 48%.
Given the importance of Pennsylvania, both campaigns are making repeated stops in the state. Trump held two rallies last week in the state and was back on Monday, while Harris was in Erie, Pennsylvania, on Monday and will travel to Bucks County on Wednesday.
5. Michigan
The Harris campaign (and the Biden campaign as well) has faced criticism from Arab and Muslim Americans based in Michigan who are infuriated over the Democratic handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
The Abandon Harris effort announced last week it was throwing its support behind Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and this week, the Arab American Political Action Committee announced it will not endorse Harris or Trump for president.
“We simply cannot give our votes to either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump, who blindly support the criminal Israeli government led by far-right extremists, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” the group said in a statement.
Yet, many polls have Harris leading Trump. FiveThirtyEight’s poll average in the state shows Harris at 47.8%, compared to Trump at 47%. The Washington Post has Harris with a 2-point lead, and the New York Times shows Harris with a 1-point lead, 49% to 48%.
RealClearPolitics, however, shows Trump leading Harris in Michigan at 48.5% to 47.6%.
Harris will appear on Tuesday in Detroit, where she will participate in a radio town hall with The Breakfast Club’s Charlamagne Tha God.
6. Nevada
Harris maintains a narrow lead in the Silver State, according to most poll averages, but the New York Times poll average does show Harris and Trump tied at 48%.
The Washington Post average has Harris leading by less than 1 point, while FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a 0.5-point lead, 47.7% to 47.1%. RealClearPolitics shows Trump with a 0.2-point lead in Nevada, 48.2% to 48%.
In addition to Harris’s town hall with Univision being filmed in Nevada, her running mate Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) made several stops in the state last week. Obama will also appear in the state on Saturday as he seeks to motivate voters.
7. Wisconsin
Harris returns to Wisconsin this Thursday, making campaign stops in Milwaukee, La Crosse, and Green Bay.
The vice president was previously in the state earlier this month when she visited Ripon, Wisconsin, with former Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney as she courted disaffected Republicans ahead of the election.
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RealClearPolitics shows Harris has a narrow lead, 48.3% to 48%. FiveThirtyEight‘s poll shows Harris at 48%, compared to Trump’s 47.5%. The Washington Post has Harris at a 2-point lead, while the New York Times has Harris with a 1-point lead, 49% to 48%.