TAIPEI, Taiwan — President Joe Biden and Taiwanese President-elect Lai Ching-te have more in common than just being former vice presidents.

Biden, 81, could be heading toward the end of his fourth year in office, and Lai, 64, starts his first on Monday. Both men desire de-escalation in cross-strait tensions with China while defending Taiwan’s sovereignty and dealing with political problems at home.

While the United States was focused on the 2024 Republican presidential primary caucuses in Iowa, Lai won Taiwan’s presidential election in January by 7 percentage points, or 915,000 votes, arguing his campaign was a “fight for the survival of the country.” Although he retained the presidency for Taiwan’s center-left party, the Democratic Progressive Party, over the historically powerful center-right to right-wing party, the Kuomintang, he did not receive a majority of the vote nor did his party gain outright control of Taiwan’s unicameral legislature in the relatively young democracy.

With Lai’s foreign policy toward the U.S. and China a centerpiece issue of his election, the U.S. has been concerned about how China will react to Lai’s inauguration on Monday and his administration during the next four years. China, for instance, has increased aggression around Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands since a February incident involving two Chinese fishermen and Taiwan’s coast guard.

Lai, a deep green, more liberal than Biden member of the DPP, once described himself as a “worker for Taiwanese independence” and China has denounced him and his vice president, former de facto Taiwanese ambassador to the U.S. Hsiao Bi-khim, as a “separatist duo.” But his U.S. and China foreign policy appears to be an extension of that of his predecessor, former President Tsai Ing-Wen. The pair have advocated for the status quo between Taiwan and China while seeking a closer relationship with the U.S. as they prepare for the prospect of an invasion. Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be ready for reunification under the One China policy by 2027.

During a pre-inauguration reception at Taipei Guest House, Lai told dignitaries, including the Washington Examiner, that he would “build upon the solid foundation created by … Tsai over the past eight years.”

“Together, we will continue to work on the path of democracy and we will continue to engage with the world to make Taiwan stronger,” he said through translators. “We will continue to defend Taiwan’s democracy. We will continue to make Taiwan’s economy more prosperous and vibrant democracy. In addition, we will also play a key role and become a key force in maintaining stability in the region.”

Lai has shown “a willingness to signal a pragmatic approach to outreach to Beijing, effectively a continuation of President Tsai’s approach,” according to Center for American Progress senior vice president for national security and international policy Alan Yu.

“The question is if Beijing sees the opening offered by Lai, and missed with Tsai, to turn down the temperature, particularly at a moment of elevated geopolitical tension and a rocky domestic economic situation,” the former adviser to special presidential envoy for climate John Kerry at the State Department told the Washington Examiner. “I’m skeptical, but if Beijing does, it will be slow and nearly invisible to the naked eye at the outset.”

For American Enterprise Institute Asia senior fellow Zack Cooper, Lai “may feel that he has to push back a little bit more firmly against China in some cases.”

“He’s probably slightly more skeptical about Beijing’s willingness to engage in a productive manner, but I think the basic logic of his approach will be quite similar [to that of Tsai],” the former White House National Security Council and Pentagon adviser told the Washington Examiner.

The U.S. and Taiwan are aligned regarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait amid “growing threats” from the Chinese Communist Party, per House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX).

“President-elect Lai’s choice of prominent national security and foreign policy leaders represents both continuity in Taiwan policy and familiarity with U.S. policy spanning several administrations,” McCaul told the Washington Examiner.

Raymond Kuo, the inaugural director of the RAND Corporation’s Taiwan Policy Initiative, agreed with McCaul that personnel is policy, including Lai’s vice presidential nominee. Critics have scrutinized Lai’s lack of foreign policy experience and clarity related to his defense posture, as well as controversial statements he has made in the past. For example, Lai said last July that “when Taiwan’s president can enter the White House, the political goal that we’re pursuing will have been achieved.” His remarks caused consternation in Washington, D.C.

“Hsiao Bi-khim was the former Taiwanese ambassador to the U.S. and was hailed for her leadership and diplomacy,” Kuo told the Washington Examiner. “I expect her to play an important, supporting role in keeping U.S.-Taiwan relations steady.”

Aside from foreign policy, Kuo said the U.S. and Taiwan are also aligned on economic issues as they negotiate the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade and hope to secure supply chains, such as those for semiconductors.

Becoming president will create complications for Lai taking high-level meetings without eliciting a response from China, but McCaul said he sat down with Lai last April when he and other members of a congressional delegation traveled to Taiwan. Biden also dispatched a bipartisan group comprising former White House National Economic Council director Brian Deese, former George W. Bush Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, one-time American Institute in Taiwan chair Richard Bush, and current chair of the U.S. de facto embassy in Taiwan Lauren Rosenberger to attend Lai’s inauguration in his stead.

Another congressional delegation is expected in Taipei on Friday.

“We oppose unilateral changes to the status quo from either side. We do not support Taiwan independence. We support cross-strait dialogue and we expect cross-strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means free from coercion,” a senior Biden administration official told reporters last week, adding her colleagues had been in contact with their Taiwanese counterparts with respect to Lai’s inaugural address. “Throughout this sensitive period, we intend to keep channels of communication open both with Beijing through diplomatic and mil-mil channels, but also in keeping with our unofficial relationship with Taiwan.”

Simultaneously, Lai is contending with political issues at home, from an economy stagnating, in part because of Taiwan’s aging population, to post-pandemic cost of living pressures. He will also have to grapple with a legislature controlled by the Kuomintang with the Taiwan People’s Party, the latter of which outperformed expectations thanks to protest votes against the two major parties and skepticism that the U.S. will be a reliable partner.

National Cheng Kung University political science professor Hung-Jen Wang underscored that Taiwan does not want any “surprises” with China, especially during a U.S. presidential election year. For Wang, Lai’s priority will be building “the greatest possible consensus on the new domestic policies they intend to implement, ensuring that the public feels the government is addressing their needs.” 

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

“This inward-focused approach necessitates stability in foreign policy to ensure that U.S. support for Taiwan does not waver,” the professor told the Washington Examiner. “The appointment of the new ambassador to the United States by President Lai Ching-te will thus become crucial.”

“Regarding cross-strait relations, while it may not be possible to achieve any breakthroughs, at the very least, the aim will be to avoid giving China too many excuses to escalate tensions,” he said.