Team DeSantis feels poised to surge if Trump trips
October 02, 2023 12:34 PM
With former President Donald Trump today beginning a parade of fall and winter court appearances, one challenger appears poised to benefit if the front-runner is tripped up in his march to the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.
In a new batch of so-called anti-polling analyses of early Republican primary and caucus states, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has the edge and popularity to pop to the top should Trump falter or his dominant position as assumed nominee fade.
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Trump has led 2024 polling for so long, and by huge numbers, that some are looking to other ways to analyze the race for cracks in his support. The pro-DeSantis group Ready to Win has seized on “anti-polling,” or studying online and social media discussions, and independent voters.
What it has found is that there is a desire for a Trump alternative, but that wish is being drowned out by more basic head-to-head polling showing the former president with a massive lead.
The group Impact Social and Ready To Win’s Dan Backer provided Secrets with the recent analysis of voters in Nevada and South Carolina which gives hope to a DeSantis turnaround.
Both showed Trump with a substantial lead but also concerns that he can’t beat President Joe Biden, creating an opening for DeSantis.
“In both South Carolina and Nevada, there is serious doubt about Trump’s ability to win the general election. Time and time again, anti-polling demonstrates DeSantis consistently defeats Joe Biden among swing voters, who desperately want a non-Trump alternative,” Backer told Secrets.
Impact Social said their study of the 2024 debate on online discussions in South Carolina found that voters are impressed by DeSantis, even more than favorite daughter Nikki Haley or favorite son Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC).
“Ron DeSantis is a genuine threat to Trump in South Carolina. Primary voters are interested in his candidacy, generally approve of his record as FL governor and are open to what he has to say. However a defeatist attitude exists among voters which suggests DeSantis ‘can’t win’ which creates [a] sense of momentum towards Trump,” said the analysis of 10,000 voters provided to Secrets.
It’s a little less positive in Nevada, but still, there is an opening, the analysis of 8,000 likely Republican voters said.
“This analysis shows that a Donald Trump victory may not fully satisfy the majority of NV primary voters. They see qualities in DeSantis which whets their appetite. Should DeSantis build on the positives set out here he will meet that need; giving him opportunity [to] change momentum and test the narrative,” it said.
But it also found the obvious problem DeSantis is facing nationally: “The problem is that these same primary voters simply don’t think he can win the GOP nomination. The cult of Donald Trump is too overbearing, which establishes its own narrative.”
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Backer sized up the findings this way to Secrets.
“The latest look at over 10,000 likely primary voters in South Carolina shows Trump at 56% favorable, compared to 46% for DeSantis. Yet, much of the negative sentiment regarding DeSantis is driven by the junk polling narrative that he can’t beat Trump in a primary, whereas Trump’s negatives are hard and fast. With Tim Scott and Nikki Haley not seen as presidential in their home state, DeSantis can break through and finish close, or even win, in South Carolina.”
In Nevada, he said, “The dearth of a winning ground game has left the narrative to national news and junk polls. Trump is at 55% soft positive, but 45% hard negative. DeSantis’s 38% positive is a gloomy forecast, restrained by a heavy ‘can’t beat sentiment.’ Nevada — the last primary before Super Tuesday — is shaping up to be a crucial opportunity for DeSantis to grab the momentum, debunk junk polling myths, head into Super Tuesday strong, and win.”