Television banking on 2024 election ad spending as SAG-AFTRA strike continues

The 2024 elections are roughly 13 months away, and the television business is hoping to receive a major boost financially from political advertisements from both parties as the SAG-AFTRA strike continues to prevent some shows from returning to production.

The anticipated boost for television will provide a much-needed lifeline for the struggling platform, as the actor’s strike that started earlier this year is still ongoing. While the writers strike ended last month, the actors involved in scripted television shows are unable to resume work until the strike ends, leaving several networks in the dark.

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“This is going to be like the Super Bowl, but all the way to November,” a top cable news executive said. “Who is the demographic that votes? The over-55s. That’s our viewers, and everyone is going to pay to reach them.”

The financial boost from both parties comes as the Republican Party aims to have its 2024 nominee retake the White House, while the Democratic Party is aiming to keep President Joe Biden as commander in chief. A multitude of other races next year for both the House of Representatives and the Senate will also be advertised by both parties, with the intent of having the majority in both the higher and lower chambers of Congress.

Nexstar Media Group, the largest station owner in the United States, has projected that political ad spending for the 2024 elections will be north of $11 billion, up from the $9 billion that was spent for the 2022 midterm elections. Tom Carter, the senior adviser of Nexstar, stated that Nexstar is “highly optimistic” over growth in political advertising.

Ahead of election season, AdImpact, an analytical intelligence firm, has predicted political ad spending to reach at least $10.2 billion this cycle across multiple media forms, including broadcast TV, cable TV, radio, satellite, digital, and connected TV, among other forms. The predicted amount would mark a 13% increase over the previous record: $9.02 billion from the 2019-2020 election cycle.

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The largest chunk of the expected $10.2 billion will be spent on broadcast TV at $5.1 billion. Cable TV will follow with $1.9 billion, then connected TV at $1.3 billion, and digital ads via outlets such as Google and Facebook with $1.2 billion, AdImpact has predicted.

The 2024 presidential race is expected to be incredibly close, with Biden and former President Donald Trump, the lead candidate in the Republican Party’s primary, nearly tied ahead of an increasingly likely rematch, with Trump getting 51% to 48% among registered voters. Biden received 51% to Trump’s 49% among likely voters. Both of the matchups were within the margins of error of the Marquette Law School Poll national survey.