The Obama Factor: Would Barack back Gavin Newsom as Biden’s successor?

Growing dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden has prompted widespread speculation in the media and among Democrats about who will eventually succeed him atop the party.

Just don’t expect former President Barack Obama to be the one making that call, Democratic insiders tell the Washington Examiner.

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More than a dozen former Obama administration officials and Democratic operatives believe that, though Obama remains one of the most popular Democrats in the country, he’d prefer to let voters “have their say” rather than attempt to influence future Democratic primaries by handing out an endorsement.

Obama notably waited until April 2020 to endorse Biden for president. His video blessing came one day after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) withdrew from the Democratic primary and similarly endorsed his former opponent.

“President Obama is one of the most respected leaders in American history. Full stop,” one former Obama administration official told the Washington Examiner. “But the part of his life where he’s intimately involved in the daily mechanics of Washington is over. Unlike [former President Donald] Trump, President Obama was happy to serve his nation and let a new generation of leaders take up the torch.”

“That isn’t to say he doesn’t care about the current and future state of the country, but he’d rather take a backseat and weigh in on issues where he specifically thinks his voice can help,” that person continued. “He’s earned the right to enjoy life alongside Michelle and his daughters, and that, I believe, will remain his primary focus.”

Two of the most common Democrats raised in the 2028 conversation are Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). Both hail from California, back increasingly progressive policies, and have close ties to Biden, with Harris the No. 2 in the administration and Newsom serving as one of Biden’s closest campaign surrogates.

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Both also have clear designs on 2028 campaigns of their own, though neither has outright stated a desire to run. Harris ran in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary and has grown her household name recognition after joining Biden in the White House, while Newsom spent much of the past three years building up his own national political operation. Some believed he might even launch an audacious primary bid on Biden in 2024 before he publicly vowed to do whatever he could to help Biden secure reelection.

Susan Walsh/AP

However, Harris’s and Newsom’s respective political stocks have charted drastically different paths in recent years.

Harris, who in 2021 was viewed as Biden’s de facto heir, has floundered in her post. Her public statements, remarks, and handling of her vice presidential portfolio have made her an easy target for Republicans, and her oversight of the migration crisis in particular raised questions about her effectiveness as a leader. Media pundits spent much of 2023 openly floating Biden dump her from the ticket ahead of the 2024 cycle before the president committed to Harris as his running mate.

Newsom, meanwhile, survived a recall election in 2021 and has emerged as not only Biden’s top campaign attack dog but also a leading voice opposing Republicans’ so-called culture war.

Toward that end, Newsom is scheduled to debate Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who is vying for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, Thursday night on Fox News. Newsom has loudly and frequently criticized DeSantis’ governance of Florida, and the event has been billed as a potential 2028 general election preview.

Still, Harris holds one decisive advantage over Newsom: her race and her gender.

And multiple people interviewed by the Washington Examiner said they expected Obama not to wade into a 2028 primary fight to avoid splitting votes and “tempering support” ahead of the 2028 general for that specific reason.

“It’s not exactly a secret that Democrats must hold onto the Black vote to ward off threats from extreme MAGA Republicans,” one former Obama administration staffer explained. “[Obama] knows that, and he won’t risk splintering the party by backing a candidate early, even if they seem like a better option on paper.”

That person said their logic applied to Obama backing Newsom, Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, or any other white male candidate over Harris unless they became clear runaway victors in a potential primary.

There’s also a nagging thought that Obama, from a policy standpoint, simply doesn’t align as closely with the Democratic base as he did in 2020, let alone during his own White House bids. The former president infamously warned Biden, Harris, and the rest of the 2020 Democratic primary field against going too far to the left in pursuing policy, as it could alienate independents and even moderate Democratic voters.

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“President Obama will do everything he can to help Democrats continue winning elections to continue the work started by his administration and advanced by the Biden-Harris administration,” a Democratic campaign veteran claimed. “His voice. His time. Everything. But all you need to do is look back at the [2020 primary] debate stage to see that the party is already starting to leave him behind.”

“You’re thinking about legacy at this point,” a second Democratic veteran operative told the Washington Examiner. “You can bet Obama won’t go quiet, but if he picks the wrong person, and then we lose? It’s a cynical thought, and I’m not saying that’s the main driver here, but it’s got to be kicking around in his mind.”