The New Hampshire primary may be the political equivalent of Groundhog Day.
If we see a strong showing from former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, we will have several more weeks of a competitive campaign season.
But if former President Donald Trump dominates the proceedings Tuesday night, she will have difficulty escaping his shadow.
Haley finally got the two-way race she long coveted when Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) ended his campaign Sunday. But if many of those votes go to Trump, she may wish he had stayed in a week longer.
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Here are a few possible outcomes we could see as the results roll in Tuesday night.
Haley wins
Trump’s sole major challenger for the nomination has one dream scenario: a showing strong enough to give her momentum going into her home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor, with a month to eat away at the former president’s lead.
By the time former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie suspended his campaign, Haley had closed to within single digits of Trump in at least one reputable Granite State poll and a lower-rated one. Many of Christie’s Never Trump supporters were likely to gravitate toward Haley, in addition to voters unaffiliated with either party who are eligible to vote in the GOP primary.
The most recent polls have been more discouraging. Trump has been at 50% or more in the last seven aggregated by RealClearPolitics and hovering around 60% in the last three.
Haley has to hope these pollsters are undercounting her support among independents, who have delivered victory to similarly situated candidates before. In 2000, George W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses by nearly 11 points and then lost New Hampshire to John McCain by 18.
At this point, a first-place showing by Haley would be an upset. McCain 2000 plus recent polling uncertainty would give her some reason for optimism.
Haley wins the expectations game
In the last few days, Haley has stopped short of predicting victory. Instead she says she hopes to get “close” to Trump. What would that look like? Haley has said she just wants to do better than she did in Iowa.
Haley placed third in Iowa. In a functionally two-person race, she seems all but certain to finish better than that. She also got 19.1% of the vote in the caucuses. She’d have to significantly underperform her New Hampshire poll numbers, which are consistently in the mid-to-high 30s, to not accomplish that goal as well.
Haley tried to play the expectations game in Iowa as well, where no one expected her to win. But she did surpass DeSantis for second place in the late Iowa polls, so her ultimate third-place finish was disappointing.
This time around, the polls are moving against Haley. So she could do better than expected even if she does not win. Twenty-four percent would be better than she did in Iowa, but probably not enough to generate any buzz. But if she breaks 40%, that might plausibly be spun as a moral victory.
Haley’s supporters are already arguing that Trump’s quasi-incumbent status makes any significant anti-Trump vote unacceptable, including in a caucus he won by a record 30 points. Trump is leading in New Hampshire by 18.2 points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
“At 50 percent, it’s crystal clear that Trump doesn’t have this primary or the party sewn up like he claims,” Mark Harris, the lead strategist for a pro-Haley super PAC, wrote in a Monday memo. Trump won 51% in Iowa and is at 54.9% in the New Hampshire RealClearPolitics polling average.
Trump wins New Hampshire in march to the nomination
The endorsements have started piling up for Trump because Republicans believe the race is getting close to the end or over already. If the latest New Hampshire polls are right, it will be difficult for Haley or anyone else to push back against this narrative.
WHDH TV and Emerson College found Trump beating Haley 53% to 37% with DeSantis still in the race taking 10%. The Washington Post and Monmouth show Trump leading 52% to 34% with DeSantis at 8%.
In a two-way race, the latest Boston Globe/Suffolk poll has Trump defeating Haley 57% to 38%. Trafalgar pegs Trump at 58%, InsiderAdvantage 62%. Haley is still hovering around the 40% that could keep her viable. But Trump could also be approaching his national poll numbers, which stand at 66.1% in the RealClearPolitics average. And achieving these results would show he can win comfortably without a crowded field.
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Trump is heavily favored in South Carolina, a fact Haley would like to do well enough in New Hampshire to change, and is the only active candidate on the Nevada caucus ballot. Haley is also the only candidate still running who appears on the Nevada primary ballot, but that contest awards no delegates.
New Hampshire could be the last shot to ensure a truly competitive GOP nomination fight.