A robust cold low-pressure system is intensifying over Hawaii into early Tuesday, leading to more active winter weather with widespread heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and wintry conditions aloft.
The Kona low-pressure system, positioned north of the Hawaiian Islands, is gradually shifting southward toward the state as its linked band of precipitation expands, resulting in hazardous conditions throughout the archipelago.
Currently, lower-level winds are converging across O’ahu and Maui County, with several thunderstorms developing in the open waters north of O’ahu and to the west of the Big Island. (RELATED: Looming Storm Threat Could Potentially Unleash Snow, Hail, Rain To United States)
Over the coming days, a steady southeasterly wind pattern will keep channeling abundant tropical moisture toward the mountain slopes of the Big Island and Maui County, raising the potential for extended periods of intense rainfall in those regions.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, thunderstorms along with pockets of intense rainfall are still likely as the precipitation band tied to the Kona low progresses across the Hawaiian Islands.
Forecasts indicate that 1-2 inches of rainfall could affect flood-prone regions, with a Flood Watch staying in place until Monday afternoon.
Deep moisture being drawn up from the south ahead of a developing cold core kona low will produce periods of heavy snow and ice over the summits Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea. The low is expected to weaken southwest of the islands Tuesday through mid-week.
So, what is a “kona low”?… pic.twitter.com/6hNH805bEU
— National Weather Service (@NWS) January 4, 2026
Besides the heavy rainfall, a Winter Storm Warning remains active until early Tuesday morning for the Big Island’s high-elevation summits.
As cooler air settles over the peaks, paired with abundant tropical moisture, optimal conditions are emerging for significant buildup of snow and ice. Such wintry precipitation is likely to lead to substantial ice buildup on roads at the summits.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, accumulations of as much as six inches of snow are anticipated. (RELATED: Multiple Semi-Trucks, Over 50 Cars Get In Pile-Up Crash On I-75 In Michigan Amid Life-Threatening Winter Storm)
Alongside the snow and ice accumulation, strong winds are anticipated at the high elevations, featuring sustained gusts between 50 and 60 mph, with potential peaks reaching up to 75 mph even in some lower areas.
The combination of these elements is expected to significantly impair visibility, potentially dropping to near-zero at certain points.
By the middle of the week, the Kona low is forecast to diminish in strength as it moves westward away from the islands, though a mild, weaker disturbance is anticipated to arrive later this week, delivering additional rainfall.