Former President Barack Obama‘s reemergence is looming over President Donald Trump‘s peace deal with Iran as the incumbent tries to sell his deal to an increasingly skeptical public after the nearly four-month war.
Obama’s return to the headlines as he prepares to open his presidential library in Chicago on Friday has heightened comparisons between his Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and Trump’s, a memorandum of understanding for which was announced but not disclosed last weekend.
In fact, Obama told ABC’s Good Morning America this week that he is “doubtful” Trump’s prospective deal “is going to be significantly different” or “a significant improvement from the deal that we had in the first place.”
“It’s a reminder that on a lot of difficult foreign policy problems, the notion that we can just bully our way or bomb our way to solutions may sometimes seem appealing, but the fact of the matter is that taking the time to explore diplomacy and exhaust the possibilities of coming up with deals that don’t solve 100% of the problem but solve 80%, 90% of the problem while avoiding the necessity of going to war,” Obama said.
He added, “You’d think we would’ve learned that lesson by now. But it seems like every so often we have to relearn that lesson again.”
Former Obama State Department veteran Tom Cochran said the timing between the MOU and the library is coincidental, but the Democratic strategist contended it does put the two deals “side by side, and that contrast isn’t [Trump’s] to win.”
“The mess we’ve been in for months now says more than anything else,” Cochran told the Washington Examiner.
Some experts pumped the brakes on jumping to comparisons, however.
Regarding Trump’s MOU, Brookings Institution foreign policy senior fellow Robert Einhorn, an adviser in Obama’s State Department, told the Washington Examiner in an email that “it’s too early to make intelligent comparisons between Obama’s JCPOA and Trump’s still-uncertain negotiating outcome.”
Council on Foreign Relations nuclear security senior fellow Erin Dumbacher agreed, although she added that Trump has encouraged comparisons between his and Obama’s deals while promising to deliver a better one than his predecessor.
“[Obama’s] deal took years to negotiate, was highly detailed, and notably brought the relevant parties to the table,” Dumbacher told the Washington Examiner. “The ‘joint’ aspect of the deal refers to the involvement of Russia, China, and European states to make sure Iran’s nuclear program would be peaceful. Each country then had a stake in the outcome.”
“In addition to lack of clarity in this deal around the restrictions on uranium enrichment or the status of any remaining fissile material in Iran, to mention just two key items, it seems other relevant parties in this war — namely Israel — are not engaged at this stage of negotiations,” she said. “That means Israel could become a spoiler to the MOU’s sustainability as a framework for future negotiations with Iran about nuclear or other matters.”
Trump, who is in Evian, France, for the G7 leaders summit, punctuated that point on Tuesday when he criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including Sunday’s operation in Beirut.
Senior Trump administration officials told reporters this week that Lebanon is not part of the deal, but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that Israel’s activities in Lebanon would contravene the MOU.
Also on Tuesday, Trump appeared mindful of the comparison between his and Obama’s respective deals.
“It’s a very important document, and, unlike Obama, who could’ve destroyed the Middle East with the horrible JCPOA,” Trump said. “That was a road to a nuclear weapon. Mine is a wall against a nuclear weapon.”
Supporters of Obama have emphasized that the preamble of his deal read, “Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop, or acquire any nuclear weapons,” though it did permit the regime to have some enriched uranium and included sunset provisions.
In response, supporters of Trump have defended the president, including Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN).
“This isn’t at all like the JCPOA,” Hagerty told Fox News. “President Obama actually paid for Iranian’s terrorism, he funded it. [President Trump] has put the Iranian nuclear program at the bottom of a mountain. He’s put their navy at the bottom of the sea. He’s terminated their ability to maintain control of their airspace.”
Trump on Tuesday also criticized Obama’s deal for giving “billions of dollars” to Iran by unfreezing assets and rescinding economic sanctions.
But senior administration officials have confirmed Iran will receive immediate sanctions relief so the regime can sell its oil as long as negotiations continue, could receive “gestures” of other sanctions relief or frozen funds access for reciprocal gestures of compliance, and could receive $300 million for reconstruction if a nuclear deal is reached, with U.S. demands including Iran’s enriched uranium, a regime moratorium on more enrichment, and inspections.
Pressure is mounting on Trump to disclose details about the MOU, which he electronically signed on Sunday, before the signing ceremony in Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday, including from congressional Republicans such as Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD).
“Until the full text of this MOU becomes clear, we will not know if the president and his team were able to negotiate a more robust agreement with Iran than prior U.S. presidents,” Dumbacher said.
Obama’s 2015 deal placed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, including a reduction in the regime’s enriched uranium stockpile and an agreement to International Atomic Energy Agency inspections, in exchange for economic sanctions relief.
Trump withdrew from Obama’s deal in 2018 because it did not permanently stop Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile development, or its use of proxies and terrorism networks to create regional security instability. At the moment, neither does Trump’s MOU.
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Trump and senior administration officials have indicated the MOU will be disclosed on Wednesday. However, that deadline could be delayed.
Nearly four months after Trump launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on Feb. 28, public support for the war now averages 38%, compared to 58% that disapprove, according to RealClearPolitics.