Trump beats Biden in seven swing states ahead of 2024: Poll

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by an average of 5% among registered voters in hypothetical matchups in seven swing states that will likely determine the outcome of next year’s presidential election. It’s the latest sign of the precariousness of Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign.

A poll released by Morning Consult on behalf of Bloomberg News on Thursday showed Trump beating Biden 47% to 42% in all the swing states combined. For each specific state, Trump continues to dominate Biden. In Arizona, he leads by 3 percentage points, in Georgia by 7 points, in Michigan by 4 points, in Nevada by 5 points, in North Carolina by 11 points, in Pennsylvania by 1 point, and in Wisconsin by 6 points.

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One caveat to the poll is that the results for the seven states, excluding Georgia and North Carolina, are within each state’s margin of error.

The hypothetical matchups included third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein on the ballot. Participants were also given the option of “don’t know/no opinion” or saying they wouldn’t vote in the polls.

Roughly 1 in 10 voters in the swing states supported Kennedy, with 1% to 2% of voters in each state supporting West, 1% to 3% backing Stein, and 1% to 3% supporting a candidate who wasn’t listed.

In a worrying sign for Biden, when the third-party candidates were removed from the ballot, he still trailed Trump in all of the seven swing states, although Georgia’s results fall within the state’s margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.

The poll is the latest positive sign for Trump as he dominates the GOP primary ahead of the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses. Voters said they trusted the former president over Biden on the topic of the economy, which at least 6 in 10 voters in the swing states said was “very” important in deciding who to vote for.

On healthcare, the other issue that at least 6 in 10 voters said was “very” important in deciding their vote, Biden narrowly leads Trump in Arizona by 1 point, in Michigan by 7 points, in Nevada by 3 points, in Pennsylvania by 4 points, and in Wisconsin by 4 points. Trump leads Biden in Georgia by 1 point and in North Carolina by 5 points.

The poll did not include hypothetical matchups between Biden and the rest of the GOP primary field, such as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

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But in recent surveys, some of the non-Trump candidates have shown voters have more appetite for their candidacy over Biden. In a Wall Street Journal poll, the former president has a 4-point advantage, 47% to 43%, over Biden. Yet the poll also showed Haley beating Biden by 17 points, 51% to 34%, which her campaign touted this week in a new ad.

The Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll surveyed 4,935 registered voters online between Nov. 27 and Dec. 6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point for all seven states. For individual states, the margin of error is between 3 percentage points and 5 percentage points.