Trump closing the gap with Biden in reliably blue Virginia – Washington Examiner

Rumblings that former President Donald Trump could compete with President Joe Biden in Virginia have grown louder, even as the state has supported the Democratic candidate every year since 2008.

A poll released last week showed Biden and Trump tied at 42% in a head-to-head race in the state, and the president leads by 2 points with third-party candidates included.

While Biden is still trending ahead in the state by about a point in the Decision Desk HQ polling average, his lead is considerably behind where the president was in his 2020 polling against Trump.

Biden’s 2020 margin was the largest win by a Democrat in the state since 1944, which was during Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s domination of the state through his election in 1932 and two subsequent reelections. Since former President Barack Obama’s 2008 victory in the state, Virginia has been blue after voting Republican since former President Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 victory.

A large part of Biden’s 2020 victory in the state was his domination of large voter bases in Fairfax and Prince William counties, where he won in landslides. Flipping Virginia Beach County, which voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, was critical as well.

Despite losing to Biden in the Old Dominion four years ago, his campaign is confident he can change the narrative in the state.

“Joe Biden is so weak, and Democrats are in such disarray, that not only is President Trump dominating in every traditional battleground state, but longtime blue states such as Minnesota, Virginia, and New Jersey are now in play,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said. “President Trump is on offense with a winning message and growing his movement every single day. Joe Biden’s campaign should be terrified.”

It’s not just polling that is building the speculation that Trump could compete in Virginia.

The state has since elected Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA), a year after Biden walloped Trump in the state. However, many considered Youngkin a more centrist Republican than Trump, and he nabbed the state away from former Gov. Terry McAuliffe by about 2 points.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) delivers his State of the Commonwealth address before a joint session of the Virginia General Assembly, Jan. 10, 2024, at the state Capitol in Richmond, Virginia. Youngkin on Wednesday, March 20, vetoed nearly two dozen pieces of crime and law enforcement legislation, including a bill that would expand the credits inmates can receive to get out of prison early and one that would allow some immigrants who are not U.S. citizens to become police officers. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)

Youngkin also benefited from considerable Republican turnout in predominantly GOP counties and lesser turnout in Democratic areas. But a February poll showed 53% of Virginians approve of the job Youngkin is doing.

And that support comes after Youngkin’s rightward shift from how he campaigned to when he took office. That shift included embracing Trump after being hesitant to do so on the campaign trail.

Trump is unlikely to win Virginia, but the fact that it could be close raises alarm bells for Biden.

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“If Virginia is even competitive in the fall, it’s a very bad sign for Biden since Virginia is more Democratic than many of the true swing states,” Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told the Hill.

While a decidedly narrow possibility, Virginia’s 13 electoral votes would contribute considerably to a theoretical Trump victory. The Cook Political Report rates the Virginia presidential race as “Solid D,” which means the state is not considered to be competitive.