TRUMP, HALEY, DESANTIS — WHO CAN BEAT BIDEN? It’s fair to say that a lot of Republican establishment types, the ones who are either in the donor class or close to it, do not believe former President Donald Trump can win a general election rematch with President Joe Biden. They support Nikki Haley in part because they believe she can beat Biden.

First of all, they’re appalled by Trump and would oppose him under any conditions — remember that. But part of their current view is based on their belief that the coming legal onslaught against Trump — at least one criminal trial, a possible guilty verdict, and continued pre-trial wrangling and revelations from his other indictments — will finally wear down the resolve of some voters who currently say they support Trump. They also know that in terms of attacks on Trump from Democrats and Democratic-adjacent media, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. As intense as you might think the attacks on Trump are now, they are guaranteed to get worse in a general election season.

It’s basically the old electability argument updated for today’s conditions. And it might turn out to be entirely true. But the problem, for now, is that poll after poll shows Trump doing a little better against Biden than either Haley or Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in a November one-on-one matchup.

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Start with the Trump-Biden contest. In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, the former president scores an average of 1.3 points higher than Biden. There have been quite a few polls on this subject — 6 since Jan. 1, with four of them showing Trump with a lead of between 1 and 8 points, and two tied.

Then go to DeSantis-Biden. In the RealClearPolitics average, Biden leads DeSantis by an average of 0.4 points — not much of a lead, but still ahead of the Republican challenger. There have been fewer polls on that matchup, just two since Jan. 1. In both of those, DeSantis leads Biden by 1 and 3 points, respectively. DeSantis is down against Biden in the average because of earlier polls showing Biden in the lead.

Finally, Haley-Biden. Haley has made her claim to be the strongest candidate against Biden a key part of her stump speech. She often says that she beats the president by 17 points in a head-to-head contest. 17 points! That is huge. But in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Haley is ahead of Biden by an average of 0.4 points. In the two polls since Jan. 1, Haley led Biden by 8 points in one, and Biden led Haley by 2 points in the other. In the four polls before that, all in December, Biden led Haley by 2, 5, 3, and 2 points, respectively.

Much of Haley’s lead comes from a few polls in which she had a big margin over Biden. Maybe they were outliers, maybe not. The poll she cites most often is a Wall Street Journal poll taken from Nov. 29 to Dec. 4 that showed her leading Biden by 17 points. Right after that poll came out, a Fox News survey showed Haley up by 6 points. Then came a spate of several polls showing Biden leading Haley by 2, 3, 5, and 2 points. And a few days ago came a poll from CBS News showing Haley leading by 8 points.

The bottom line is that you average Haley’s results, and she is leading Biden by 0.4 points, and you average Trump’s results, and he is leading Biden by 1.3 points. Now, a single-point difference is not something to get all excited about, but what can certainly be said is that the polls do not show Haley with a big advantage over Trump in matchups with Biden.

That is why Haley supporters believe her real advantage will become clear only when Trump’s troubles accumulate later this year. Will that really happen? That is something the voters do not and cannot know as they make their decisions in the January, February, and March GOP primaries.

For a deeper dive into many of the topics covered in the Daily Memo, please listen to my podcast, The Byron York Show — available on Radio America and the Ricochet Audio Network and everywhere else podcasts can be found.