Trump leading Biden in five swing states as momentum in 2024 race grows: Poll

President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump, the front-runner in the GOP primary race, in five swing states, according to a new poll released Thursday, adding to a growing number of surveys that show Trump’s growing strength in the 2024 election cycle.

Emerson College polling of six swing states showed Trump besting Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, while Biden leads Trump in Michigan. The poll matches other recent polls from the New York Times-Siena College that also showed Trump beating Biden in five out of six key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

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Registered voters in Arizona supported Trump over Biden 43% to 41%. In Georgia, registered voters supported Trump over Biden 40% to 41%. Trump dominated Biden in Nevada 46% to 39% among registered voters. In Pennsylvania, Trump leads Biden among registered voters 46% to 43%, and in Wisconsin, Trump garners 44% support to Biden’s 43% among registered voters.

Michigan is the only swing state where Biden beats Trump among registered voters 43% to 41%.

In another worrying sign for Biden, Emerson College found that Biden’s support among voters under 30 is lower than it was in 2020.

In comparison, Trump has “locked in” his support among middle-aged voters, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling.

Among likely voters under 30, 47% supported Biden, while 39% supported Trump in the six swing states. Another 14% are undecided.
Trump garners 52% support of 50-64 year old general election voters, while Biden garners 39%. Voters aged 65 and over split their support evenly between Trump and Biden at 46% to 46%.

When asked the reasoning for supporting Biden or Trump, 29% of likely voters supported their candidate because they disliked the other candidate, 24% supported their candidate because they liked that candidate, while 21% said it was because they cared about an issue, and 15% supported their party’s candidate.

“Biden and Trump likely voters under 30 are most likely to say they are voting for Biden and Trump to support their party’s candidate, at 29% and 23%,” Kimball also said.

The 80-year-old Biden and 77-year-old Trump face growing concerns about their ability to lead as president should either one get reelected, which the poll reflected. Of the voters surveyed in the six swing states, 32% said the president should ideally be aged in their 50s, 18% said a president should be aged in their 60s, and 25% said they had no preference on the age of an ideal candidate. Only 5% said a president should be in their 70s, and 2% said a president should be in their 80s or older.

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The poll surveyed 1,000 voters in each of the six swing states and was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 4. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.