Trump loses to Biden with key bloc of voters who boost president in head-to-head matchup

A new poll gives President Joe Biden some rare good news as surveys predicting he will lose to former President Donald Trump pile up and frustrate Democrats.

In a head-to-head matchup between the likely Democratic and Republican candidates, the two men have paths to victory, but Biden holds an advantage over Trump among voters who are likely to vote in the 2024 general election. Although the president falls to Trump among registered voters, Biden holds a 2-point advantage nationally with those who are likely to vote, according to the latest New York Times/ Siena College poll.

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The group went for Biden 47% to Trump’s 45%.

However, Trump held the lead over Biden among registered voters, 46% to 44%. Trump, who leads the Republican primary field by double digits going into the new year, is increasingly expected to be the party’s nominee.

Registered voters are not necessarily set on voting in 2024, though. Just over half of the registered voter respondents, 53%, said they were “almost certain” they would vote in the election.

Biden also leads Trump with people ages 18-29 who are likely voters, 47% to 44%. But the once Democratic stronghold goes for Trump 49% to 43% among registered voters.

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Biden and Trump have consistently been in a dead heat in measures of a rematch, frequently within the margin of error. Trump, though, has led the president in pivotal swing states, even if by just a couple of points.

Biden’s campaign has addressed this by focusing specifically on battleground states, emphasizing labor unions and abortion, and homing in on off-putting language and unpopular proposals from the former president. In the summer, Biden’s campaign launched an early ad blitz in the swing states, setting aside $25 million for targeted advertising in them.