Former President Donald Trump is no longer guaranteed a victory against Vice President Kamala Harris this November, according to a major polling guru. 

After President Joe Biden passed the Democratic torch to Harris earlier this month, Nate Silver, an acclaimed elections analyst and statistician, released an election model predicting Trump would clinch an Electoral College win on Nov. 5 against the vice president. 

This week, the pollster backtracked his prediction.

“The presidential election is a toss-up,” Silver said in a press release to his Substack blog Silver Bulletin on Thursday afternoon.

“As of this afternoon’s model run, Harris’s odds had improved to 44.6%, as compared to 54.9% for Trump and a 0.5% chance of an Electoral College deadlock,” Silver wrote.

“It’s not exactly 50/50, but close enough that a poker player would call it a ‘flip’: Democrats have ace-king suited, and Republicans have pocket jacks,” he continued. 

Silver’s 54.9% odds for Trump are down from the former president’s 66% chances of winning the election in June when he was campaigning against Biden.

While Silver said Harris has a better chance of beating Trump than her boss did, the pollster warned Democrats that the election is far from decided. 

“Democrats shouldn’t get too out over their skis about this,” Silver said on Substack.

He added the new polling could simply be “Harris’s high-water mark,” reflecting only “a temporary surge of Democratic enthusiasm.”

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Silver believes that with “the election [in] Kamala-mode,” it continues to be “far from clear whose position you’d rather be in, and I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to bet either on Harris or on Trump.”

The creator of FiveThirtyEight, a prominent polling organization, Silver gained recognition for successfully predicting 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election. He also accurately forecasted former President Barack Obama’s victory over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in 2012.