Donald Trump picked up 15 electoral votes when he won Michigan on Election Day, another big win that helped to hand the Republican candidate his second presidential term. Both he and the Democratic nominee, US vice president Kamala Harris, spent a lot of time this fall campaigning in the critical swing state.
One consequence of this electoral quirk is that the candidates have said plenty about electric cars, and dropped lots of hints about how the electric revolution might fare during their administrations. Detroit is Michigan’s largest city, the center of the American auto industry, and the spiritual home of the American auto worker.
Now Trump—with the backing of at least a Republican US Senate—will retake control of the federal government, and it’s clear that his administration will take a different approach to electric vehicles than his predecessor, complicating the industry’s position as it attempts to electrify.
EVs aren’t going away. But their future is much murkier than it was yesterday.
What Trump Has Said
The president-elect has made conflicting statements about electric vehicles. During his nomination speech in July of this year, Trump pledged to “end the electric vehicle mandate on day one,” a reference to the Biden administration’s goal to convert half of all vehicle sales to EVs by 2030. The move would, Trump promised, save the US auto industry from “complete obliteration,” and slash US car prices by thousands of dollars. (EVs are by and large still more expensive than internal-combustion cars.) Trump has called federal spending on electric vehicles and their chargers a part of “the Green New scam,” a play on the US Congress’ bipartisan “Green New Deal” funding package. Earlier this year, he told a Michigan audience that the industry’s emphasis on electric vehicles would make it easier for China to take over the global auto industry.
But Tesla CEO Elon Musk has proved a reliable supporter, adviser, and moneyman for the president-elect. Trump, a transactional politician, seems prepared to repay him. “I’m for electric cars,” Trump said in August. “I have to be, because Elon endorsed me very strongly.” Tesla’s share price soared by 13 percent Wednesday.
Then there are the positions of the conservative Heritage Foundation. The right-wing think tank’s Project 2025 transition plan has been disavowed by the Trump campaign, but it may still provide scaffolding for the administration’s policies. In a brief focused on the Department of Transportation, the organization criticized EV subsidies, including tax credits, and new fuel economy standards that attempt to reduce vehicle emissions over the next decade.
What Could Happen
It will likely prove difficult and time-consuming for Trump and his allies to undo four years of EV support. Because so many climate-related policies are enshrined in federal law, he will need help from Congress to nix them. Electric vehicle tax credits might be an easy first target. Republicans didn’t like those. But the Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Transportation’s stronger greenhouse gas emissions rules, finalized this year, have received support from the auto industry. Industry-friendly Republicans might not help Trump out there. Any funding for the factories that build electric vehicles and batteries that’s flowing into red states won’t easily be yanked.
The Trump administration will have control over funding from the Infrastructure Act and the Inflation Reduction Act that has yet to be handed out. Targets there could include what remains of money that’s been promised for a nationwide electric vehicle charging network.
Auto industry leaders will likely be affected by Trump’s promises to raise steep tariffs against foreign goods, raising the prices of foreign cars sold in the US. Automakers likely to face challenges include German firms Mercedes-Benz and BMW. Meanwhile, domestic carmakers General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis may thrive.
Blue states—most notably California—will push forward in their attempts to electrify. Last time Trump was in office, his EPA attempted to rescind the waiver allowing California to set more aggressive emissions targets than the federal government. But the effort was troubled by lawsuits, and eventually, the auto industry itself, which struck deals with California to allow its ambitious emission policies to continue.
Industry analysts, meanwhile, expect officials in the Biden administration to hustle to finalize important EV-friendly regulations even before the current president leaves the White House. The US Environmental Protection Agency, for example, is expected to finalize a waiver that will allow California to move forward with its plan to ban gas-powered car sales by 2035. California is one of the largest auto markets in the country, and other states have proven eager to follow the state’s zero-emissions lead.
The Biden Policies
The Biden administration put the auto industry at the center of its new approach to domestic policy. It passed laws creating new tax credits for electric vehicle buyers, and sent billions to companies building EVs and the public infrastructure that will keep them charged up. Under Biden, the EPA also finalized new and more aggressive caps on tailpipe emissions, which will gradually require the auto industry to pump out more gas-efficient vehicles and combat air pollution.
Biden has also struck a stronger pose against the threat of the Chinese auto industry, which is exporting a steady stream of affordable EVs overseas, mostly to nations in South America, Europe, and the Middle East. The administration placed an unprecedented 100 percent tariff on Chinese-made vehicles, and is in the process of finalizing a rule that would bar advanced Chinese and Russian auto tech from the US—effectively banning Chinese cars from the US. Trump has promised to intensify the United States’ hostile trade position towards China.
Automakers don’t want EVs to be political. Earlier this summer, Ford CEO Jim Farley tried to insist that politics have no place in electric car making. “The tipping point we’re working toward will come not from regulators who push us or from politicians who try to hold us back. It will come from consumers,” he wrote on LinkedIn, where he posts frequently. But whether Ford and its ilk can avoid those regulators and politicians is an open question. Meanwhile, buyers will continue to determine the future of EVs at the dealership.