Twelve Days of WEX-mas: Democrats rebranding candidates as tough on crime ahead of 2024 race

In the spirit of the season, the Washington Examiner has identified 12 matters we believe will shape 2024 and beyond. These close-up examinations of agenda-setting topics cover everything from the battle between the Biden family and the House Oversight Committee, the emergence of a “new world order,” and fights over redistricting and new election maps. Part Two is about crime and its role in the 2024 elections.

Democrats are facing serious headwinds going into the 2024 elections, locked in an internal tug of war over their messaging on crime and up against a Republican machine that has hammered them for years on the matter.

The Democratic Party’s progressive wing has been raked over the coals for favoring reform over punishment. It’s been a hard, bruising, and often losing battle, with voters showing their dissatisfaction at the local level, siding with sheriffs and prosecutors pushing for harsher penalties.

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On the national stage, Democrats have allowed Republicans to paint them as soft on crime, while voters, frustrated with competing and sometimes confusing statistics on crime rates, have made it clear their patience is wearing thin.

“There’s a deep anxiety about public safety,” said David Axelrod, a former top adviser to President Barack Obama. “And Democrats or anyone running for public office needs to be able to speak to that.”

Both parties have been trying to control the narrative, but Democrats have the added burden of balancing their statements with their more progressive counterparts, who are in the minority but extremely vocal. They want to make over the entire system instead of handing out stiffer prison sentences. But refusing to budge on criminal justice isn’t a winning strategy and could put other Democrats in jeopardy, experts said.

“I do think that Democrats and Republicans both have to figure out a way to talk smartly about crime,” Michael Hardaway, managing director of Mercury, a high-stakes public relations firm, told the Washington Examiner. “Democrats are right. You need reforms. Republicans are right. You have to arrest people who have committed crimes. The answer is both. We’ve got to get out of this business of saying it’s one or the other. It’s never been one or the other. You have to arrest people, and you have to fix the broken system.”

A Gallup poll released in November found that 77% of people believe crime has gotten worse. In reality, the crime rates released by the FBI showed most violent crimes fell.

The FBI data, which compare crime rates in the third quarter of 2023 to the same period last year, found that violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3% to its lowest level since 1961. Murder was down more than 15%.

Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg told the Washington Examiner it may be time for the party to start leaning into the crime conversation.

“Crime rates have come down all across the country this year, and obviously, that’s going to be an important part of the conversation [in 2024],” he said. “Crime went up during COVID, and it’s come down, and that’s good news, and we should be honest with the American people about the progress we are making. Yes, there is anxiety about crime … but I think all this new data and the reality that it’s getting better in all likelihood is going to make this argument [that Democrats are soft on crime] a little tougher for Republicans.”

Georgia-based political strategist David McLaughlin agrees.

“I think if the positive news on crime gets out to the masses, it won’t be as big an issue for either party to run on,” he told the Washington Examiner, but he cautioned it would be difficult to rely solely on updated statistics to make the message stick. “I think Fox News has a much bigger megaphone to give anecdotal evidence to keep their viewers angry and watching more Fox News.”

Criminologist Jeff Asher, who analyzed the FBI numbers, said people have been “conditioned, and we have no way of countering the idea that crime is rising.”

“It’s just an overwhelming number of news media stories and viral videos — I have to believe that social media is playing a role,” he added.

Hardaway called crime “a matter of feeling, not a matter of statistics.”

“The FBI says that assaults are down, rapes are down, murders are down across the country,” he said. “However, people don’t feel safe. I think that’s a function of social media videos that are out there, and I think people just don’t feel safe, which is a problem for any elected official.” 

A September NBC poll showed that voters overwhelmingly said they trusted Republicans to do a better job than Democrats on crime. To change minds that translate to wins at the ballot box, Democrats will have to get tougher on the topic, Rosenberg said. 

“Democrats should be on the front foot of this, playing offense, not playing defense,” Rosenberg said.

That has, to some extent, already started to take shape.

Several Democratic senators facing competitive races this year — including Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA), and Jon Tester (D-MT) — voted with Republicans in 2023 to overturn a Washington bill that would have overhauled the district’s criminal code and relaxed sentencing requirements for certain crimes. In all, 33 Democrats sided with Republicans, a move that underscored the effect that looking tough on crime has on voters.

Even President Joe Biden bucked the party line with his decision on the local crime law. His action sent a strong message to Democrats that they needed to get tougher on crime and address the GOP’s criticism head-on.

For its part, the White House has been planning a full-throated effort to rebrand Biden and chip away at GOP complaints that he’s too soft on the subject and, in turn, give Democrats an opportunity to pivot.

For Republicans, who have relied on taking a tough stance on crime to give them the edge in general elections, staying the course may not be enough this time.

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However, most of the ramped-up rhetoric over crime and punishment will likely play out in the primaries, Republican consultant David Kochel told the Economic Times.

Several of the GOP White House contenders have gotten more outrageous with their proposed policies, including killing on sight to curb crime, a message that isn’t likely to fly in the general election.