Twelve days of WEX-mas: Redistricting fights that began in 2023 could have major implications on 2024

In the spirit of the season, the Washington Examiner has identified 12 issues we believe will shape 2024 — and beyond. These close-up examinations of agenda-setting issues cover everything from the ongoing battle between the Biden family’s business deals and Republican Oversight to the emergence of a “new world order” and fights over redistricting and new election maps. Part 11 is about how new congressional maps will change the political landscape this year.

Hovering over the 2024 election are redistricting fights in several states that could change the makeup of Congress and aid either Democrats and Republicans in regaining control of the House or the Senate.

States such as Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, New York, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are all facing redistricting fights, with both major political parties securing wins ahead of 2024 and some legal battles over newly drawn maps continuing into the new year.

TWELVE DAYS OF WEX-MAS: BIDEN SEEKS TO KEEP DEMOCRATS IN LINE AS PARTY EYES GAINS IN 2024

On the whole, most blue states facing redistricting are expected to become more blue, while red states are expected to lean more red. However, a few states have flipped key areas that could spell trouble for the opposing party next November.

Here is where redistricting stands in key states ahead of the 2024 election.

Alabama

Alabama’s long-running congressional redistricting fight ended in November with a win for Democrats after a federal court chose a remedial congressional map that increases the black majority of voters in the 2nd Congressional District.

The redrawing of the congressional maps dominated the state’s political landscape for the second half of 2023, with even the U.S. Supreme Court weighing in on the issue in a state where one-fourth of residents are black.

In June, the Supreme Court affirmed a lower court ruling that Alabama needed to redraw its maps, stating they likely violated the Voting Rights Act. The old map had one black district out of seven. The high court requested the state include two majority-black districts.

The Supreme Court’s order had significant ramifications, as the anticipation of two new majority-black districts shifted the projected outcome of five different 2024 House races to lean in favor of Democrats.

The state came up with new lines, but it maintained only one majority-black district and created a new district that was 40% black, up from 30%, causing the map to be rejected again in September by a three-judge federal panel. The panel ordered a third party to draw new lines, and three remedial maps were requested for submission by Sept. 25 last year.

In November, a lower federal court selected Remedial Plan 3, which redrew lines to make the 2nd District made up of 49% black voters. Instead of six safe Republican districts and one safe Democrat district, the new map for the 2024 election will now have two districts where Democrats have a strong chance of winning.

Georgia

Republicans in Georgia secured a victory last week after a federal judge upheld the state’s newly approved congressional maps, a blow to Democrats who hoped to flip a seat in the state.

The fight over Georgia’s congressional maps had been unfolding since October, when U.S. District Judge Steve Jones ruled that the Peach State’s current map violated the Voting Rights Act. He ordered the maps to be redrawn by Dec. 8 and must include an additional majority-black district.

At the time, Democrats saw the redrawing as an opportunity to pick up more seats in Congress and in the state legislature, as Republicans hold a 10-seat majority in the Georgia legislature, 222-212. With the requirement of a majority-black district, Democrats, who historically have a stronger appeal to black voters, were hopeful that the maps would lean in their favor.

Georgia lawmakers advanced the Republican-led legislative maps on Dec. 1 last year. The map preserves Georgia Republicans’ 9-5 advantage in the U.S. House and dissolved the district of Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA), which is comprised mostly of minority voters. However, the lawmakers drew a new majority-black district west of metro Atlanta, which they claimed satisfied Jones’s request.

This map approval gives Republicans an advantage to maintain nine of the state’s 14 U.S. House districts in November and, depending on what McBath decides to do, could hand victory to the GOP in a few others.

Louisiana

Like Alabama, the Louisiana redistricting case has been a long-standing legal battle between Republican and Democratic foes, the latter of whom argued the standing maps unfairly diluted black voters. The Supreme Court intervened in this case, as well, placing Louisiana’s on hold while Alabama’s case played out.

A Louisiana federal judge invalidated a map drawn by Republican state lawmakers in 2022, stating it violated the Voting Rights Act. The Supreme Court lifted its stay on Louisiana after upholding a lower court decision in Alabama in June, ruling that Louisiana needed to draw a second majority-black district before the 2024 election.

The plaintiffs in Robinson v. Ardoin, who argued the map included a racial gerrymander, had argued that because 30% of Louisiana’s population is black, 30% of the congressional districts should be majority-black.

There are some differences between Alabama’s and Louisiana’s cases despite having many similarities. Unlike in Alabama, there is no dense black population in Louisiana to support a second majority-black district, despite one-third of Louisiana’s population being black. The plaintiffs also suggested stitching together portions of districts miles away from each other, which Chief Justice John Roberts said could not be done to make a majority-black district.

Republicans currently hold five of the six congressional seats in Louisana. However, that majority could be in jeopardy due to the Supreme Court’s order. The legislature has until Jan. 30 to finalize its proposal. Otherwise, the district court will bring the matter to trial on Feb. 5. A special session to discuss the new maps is set to begin on Jan. 15.

New York

New York’s top court handed Democrats a significant victory in December, ruling that the state’s congressional maps used in 2022 needed to be redrawn. The 2022 maps paved the way for Republicans to flip four blue seats and win control of the U.S. House. Now, Democrats are seeking to alter the boundaries and edge out several New York GOP incumbents.

Some of the New York Republicans who will be targeted by the new maps include Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), Mike Lawler (R-NY), and Marc Molinaro (R-NY), each flipping their district from blue to red in the 2022 midterm elections.

The maps will be created through an independent redistricting commission, but the Democratic-led legislature has final approval over the maps under state law. Any new congressional map proposals are expected to be finalized in February or March, with Republicans likely to oppose any maps and ultimately draw the fight out to the November election.

With New York Republicans holding 11 seats and New York Democrats holding 15, the new maps could give Democrats an edge in up to six districts that could shift the majority in the House.

North Carolina

Republicans may lose ground in New York, but they could make it up in North Carolina wins in 2024 after the state approved a new map earlier this year that altered all 14 of the state’s districts.

The North Carolina delegation is split among seven Democrats and seven Republicans. However, the new map created 10 districts favoring Republicans were created, three favoring Democrats, and one that is considered a toss-up.

The redistricting will affect several Democratic incumbents in November, making it harder to hold on to their seats, such as Reps. Jeff Jackson (D-NC), Wiley Nickel (D-NC), and Kathy Manning (D-NC). Subsequently, all three announced they would not seek reelection. Rep. Don Davis (D-NC), whose seat is now considered the toss-up race, may also face a tough reelection bid.

The new maps are facing at least two legal challenges, but it is unlikely that they will be resolved before the 2024 election, effectively assuring that Republicans will pick up at least three Democratic seats in November. Voting and civil rights groups are asking judges to block any election under the GOP-favored maps, but they are calling for remedial proposals for the 2026 midterm elections.

Wisconsin

Democrats celebrated victory in Wisconsin after the state’s Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that the legislative maps need to be redrawn ahead of the 2024 primary elections in August, arguing that they violate the Constitution and don’t consist of contiguous territories.

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Conservatives criticized the decision, stating it was politically motivated to help Democrats win in a key battleground state in 2024. The ruling came months after liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz defeated conservative former state Supreme Court Justice Dan Kelly, ensuring a liberal majority for the state’s top court for the first time in 15 years.

Given Wisconsin is a purple state — it has a Democratic governor and a Republican-led legislature — as well as having a split delegation of seven Republicans and three Democrats, the redistricting could have a significant effect on the 2024 election results where either party has the chance to make gains.