Twelve Days of WEX-mas: Republicans head into 2024 with deep intraparty divisions

In the spirit of the season, the Washington Examiner has identified 12 issues we believe will shape 2024 — and beyond. These close-up examinations of agenda-setting issues cover everything from the ongoing battle between the Biden family’s business deals and Republican oversight, the emergence of a “new world order,” and fights over redistricting and new election maps. Part 10 is about the fractured GOP and whether Republicans have found their footing heading into 2024.

The House Republican Conference is going into the new year sharply divided as members of the conference across the spectrum continue to try and recover from a year of turmoil.

When the House arrived in January, it took 15 rounds and four days to elect a speaker as members, led by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), lined up to oppose former Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) bid for the speakership.

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And, while he eventually got the gavel, it came at the cost of several concessions, including the threshold to trigger a motion to vacate being dropped down to one member.

After the debt ceiling deal, a handful of them then blocked the House floor for a week in protest of the compromise made between McCarthy and the White House.

Mark Schiefelbein/AP

Then eight of them, once again led by Gaetz, ousted McCarthy as speaker, and it then took three weeks to find a new one.

And after they elected Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to replace McCarthy, many members believed things would change.

But they haven’t.

Hard-line conservatives, fed up with what they view as Johnson caving to Democrats and the Senate’s demands, have successfully blocked rules and tried to take down other pieces of legislation. And, while they largely haven’t been successful, they’ve been loud and a thorn in Johnson’s side.

“One thing. I want my Republican colleagues to give me one thing — one — that I can go campaign on and say we did,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) said on the House floor after it passed a continuing resolution. “Anybody sitting in the complex, if you want to come down to the floor and come explain to me one meaningful, significant thing the Republican majority has done besides ‘Well, I guess it’s not as bad as the Democrats.’”

Things boiled over once the House passed the National Defense Authorization Act. Republican members across the ideological spectrum were singing their criticism of Johnson after the bill’s passage, and the likelihood of any rules passing in the near future dropped substantially.

Johnson is also coming to the realization that being the leader of the House means compromise, which is something many in Congress don’t like to do.

He is likely going to have to bring to the floor a pending border security legislation that will be bashed by the far Right of his conference because while his conference calls for the Senate and White House to pass and sign their H.R. 2, the odds of that happening are zero. So, if Republicans in the House want something to pass on border security, they’d have to settle for something less than what they deem perfect.

Animosity toward those in the conference who ousted McCarthy or made his life miserable while he was speaker also continued long after his ouster. This staunch divide will likely lead to House Republicans being unable to pass anything along party lines for the remainder of this Congress.

There are also divisions within the Republican Party outside of the House as the presidential primary is set to commence this month with the Iowa caucuses, and former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in just about every poll.

As candidates try to pitch themselves as alternatives to the former president, voters aren’t buying it.

According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump holds a 51-point lead over the next closest candidate, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), and is essentially lapping the field.

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Members of the House have also come to terms with the fact that Trump will likely be the nominee as he rakes in more endorsements from members than his opponents, including Johnson.

The House’s chaos, mixed with election season politics, is sure to set up more disagreements as some members will want to move further to the right while others will want to curb staunchly partisan votes. This will likely lead to even further division within the conference in 2024.