Failing to secure major advances against entrenched Russian forces, Ukraine is refocusing toward a blend of defensive actions and so-called deep strikes inside Russia. It’s a positive shift in strategy.

At a basic level, the reprioritization of defensive over offensive action allows Ukrainian forces to flip the battlefield script on the Russians. The 2023 summer-winter Ukrainian counteroffensive made only sparse gains at a heavy cost of manpower and lesser but still significant loss of materiel. While Russian forces also suffered heavy casualties, they were able to focus on defensive action, gaining a respite from relentless frontal attacks previously ordered by commanders. Now, however, with Ukrainian forces holding in defense, Russian forces are seeing their own casualties rise in return only for limited territorial gains. This is a problem for the Russian military. The repeated and stark inability of Russian forces to conduct effective combined arms offensives means that many infantry units are being decimated as they attempt poorly organized assaults. This is obviously bad for already low Russian morale. Losses of Russian armored vehicles and tanks are also rising. Russia cannot replace these weapons systems at a scale necessary to allow sustained offensives of the kind currently underway. And it needs the best systems to break through Ukrainian lines.

Put simply, a defensive Ukrainian battlefield strategy affords Kyiv the best possible chance of exhausting Russian forces and materiel. It also buys time for the arrival of personnel trained on new weapons systems such as F-16 fighter jets. These F-16s have the potential to deny Russian aviation access to much of Ukrainian airspace. They will also enable Ukraine to hold Russian command centers at risk across the country, worsening Russia’s already weak operational efficiency. The F-16s threaten to impose further highly expensive losses on Russia’s Black Sea fleet, for example.

At the same time, Ukrainian defensive action will also allow for the relative preservation of advanced Western tanks and munitions, such as artillery shells, that are in short supply. Assuming Russian territorial gains remain limited, as Russian losses accumulate, the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek a Ukraine favorable peace accord will grow in kind. This defensive approach thus offers Ukraine a durable means of attriting Russian forces and resolve.

Then there’s Ukraine’s deep strike agenda.

The successful drone attack on the St. Petersburg gas terminal last weekend offers a prime example in kind. That attack damaged fuel supplies and caused infrastructure damage to Russia’s critical energy sector. This is a problem for Russia in that Western sanctions imposed since the start of the war in Ukraine have exacerbated supply shortages related to energy operations. This Russian problem is worsened by systemic corruption, underinvestment, and mismanagement in Russia’s energy sector. By targeting infrastructure deep inside Russia, Ukraine also gives a morale boost to its citizens and Western supporters. Attacks on St. Petersburg (Putin’s hometown) and Moscow make Putin look weak, jeopardizing central planks of his leadership narrative: confidence, pride, and stability. At the margin, they force Putin to further boost the sclerotic influence of the state in the economy.

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Ukraine will find further deep strike opportunities as Russia adopts more aggressive offensive action. The more Russian command nodes and supporting forces are forced to operate intensively and responsively to shifting battlefield conditions, the more they will make themselves visible to intelligence detection and vulnerable to attack. In turn, Ukraine will use weapons systems such as its U.S.-provided HIMARs rocket artillery and U.K.-France-provided Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles to hit high-value Russian targets as and when they appear. These losses will be embarrassing to the Kremlin and damaging to Russian capabilities.

The ultimate advantage of Ukraine’s evolving strategy is that it buys time while mitigating costs. While Putin remains very popular at home, an escalating stream of body bags and destroyed equipment will pose increasing problems for his rule. Alongside high-profile Ukrainian attacks, Russian failures to make dramatic advances will gradually undermine Russian support for the war.