There are a number of tragedies simultaneously at play now in Ukraine, revolving around the massive number of casualties sustained during the almost two years of war.
The numbers are a state secret, but the Western media estimates just under 200k – 70k dead and 120k wounded. That number in itself would signal a catastrophic situation, but the real numbers are much worse.
While we can’t fully know this figure, we can measure it by the fact that now Ukraine wants to cover its losses by mobilizing HALF A MILION new citizens for the war effort.
That’s easier said than done due to the general low morale and the hundreds of thousands of military-age Ukrainian males that fled the country.
Ukrainian Telegram channel ‘Resident’ summarized the main problem of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: “Our source in the [Office of the President] said that Western military think tanks and experts consider the main problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 2024 to be a lack of motivation and forced mobilization. There are no queues at the [Draft offices], and Ukrainians are willing to pay huge sums of money to leave the country.”
The situation is made worse by the ongoing undeclared struggle between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander in Chief Valery Zaluzhny, with one trying to shift the considerable political cost of the new conscription effort to the other.
Proposed changes to the mobilization rules would enable Kyiv to call up more people and tighten sanctions against draft evasion.
AFP reported:
“After an initial outpouring of patriotism in the months after Russia’s invasion began, the realities of the battlefield — and mobilization — have largely set in among Ukraine’s population.
Heavy casualties and almost two years of grinding trench warfare have sparked a fierce debate on the future of the draft, an ever more pertinent topic as the army struggles to fill its ranks.”
The crazy ideas are flying from all quarters. Ruling party lawmaker Mariana Bezugla suggested exempting people from mobilization in exchange for a substantial donation to the budget.
“‘And those who don’t have any money, let them croak in the trenches and let their children become orphans…’, one person commented on the deputy’s Facebook page. ‘War is for the poor’, said another.”
Reuters reported:
“People who don’t abide by the law on mobilization would be placed on a registry and face restrictions on conducting operations involving property, be banned from travelling abroad and denied loans. They could also be suspended from state benefits and services, and restricted from using a car and obtaining a driving license.”
We are talking about three to five-year jail terms for refusing a military medical examination.
The draft bill also lowers the age at which people can be mobilized for combat duty to 25 from 27.
The political situation does not help. Sixty-two percent of Ukrainians now say they trusted Zelensky, down from 84 percent one year earlier.
Twenty-six percent said that they trusted the Ukrainian government, while only 15 percent said they trusted Ukraine’s parliament.
Pushback against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is building to avoid responsibility for the plan to draft more soldiers.
Newsweek reported:
“During a press conference December 19, Zelensky expressed reluctance while announcing that the Ukrainian military was proposing to draft as many as 500,000 new troops to aid in the ongoing war effort against Russia.
‘I would need more arguments to support this move’, Zelensky said, according to Reuters. ‘Because first of all, it’s a question of people, secondly, it’s a question of fairness, it’s a question of defense capability, and it’s a question of finances’.”
The law was submitted using the names of Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, while Zelensky’s name was nowhere to be seen.
Lawyer and activist Hennadiy Druzenko: Zelensky is playing a game of “hot potato” with the unpopular move.
“‘The president did not behave like a statesman’, Druzenko said. ‘[Zelensky] should come out and start taking responsibility for himself and explain why this [bill] is necessary’.
[…] The mobilization proposal has highlighted an escalating rift between Zelensky and General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a potential candidate in the country’s next presidential election, which is currently postponed.
[…] There have been some indications that Zelensky’s popularity is waning as the war nears its two-year anniversary. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko recently praised Zaluzhnyi for telling “the truth” while accusing Zelensky of ‘euphorically’ lying about Ukraine’s standing in the war.”
The issue has been tossed back and forth between Zelensky and Zaluzhny.
Financial Times reported:
“’I need specifics’, [Zelensky] said. ‘This is a very serious number’. […] Asked about the 450,000-500,000 number cited by Zelensky, the general [Zaluzhny] said he ‘did not make any request for any figures’. Revealing any numbers would amount to divulging a military secret, he added.”
Zaluzhny distanced the armed forces from provisions in the bill to expand the conscription orders to Ukrainians living abroad and to impose tougher sanctions on draft dodgers.
“‘We are an army, and we should fight, not interfere in the lives of civilians’, he said.
[…] Relations between Zelensky and his top military commander were tense even before autumn, when the failure of Ukraine’s counteroffensive sparked rumors of the general’s imminent dismissal. Some military officers say differences over strategy and tactics are to be expected in a grueling conflict.
But some in Zelensky’s circle see Zaluzhny, who is highly popular with the Ukrainian public, as a potential political rival.”
In a meeting with Rada deputies to discuss changes in the bill, Zaluzhny reportedly flipped out and called the lawmakers to go fight on the front themselves.
“‘Who should I fight with? Either turn to the world and ask people there, or go fight if you don’t provide. I need people, the Russians have already called up 400 thousand’, said the Ukrainian commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”
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