Up for grabs: How 24 ‘toss-up’ seats could decide who controls the House in 2024

While the presidential election in November is set to be a hotly contested race, the battle for control of the House of Representatives is also expected to be tight and could come down to two dozen races.

Republicans won control of the House in 2022 with a narrow 222-213 majority, and the CookPoliticalReport assesses that the GOP will be defending more of the 24 “toss-up” seats entering the 2024 election.

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The outlet rates 14 seats held by Republicans as being toss-ups, including those held by several freshman New York congressmen. Seats held by Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), Mike Lawler (R-NY), Marc Molinaro (R-NY), and Brandon Williams (R-NY), as well as the district formerly represented by expelled Rep. George Santos, are among the seats with the classification due to the close partisan split of the districts and the prospects of the districts being redrawn in the Empire State.

The list of toss-up seats also includes a swath represented by Republicans in California, including Reps. John Duarte (R-CA), David Valadao (R-CA), Mike Garcia (R-CA), and Ken Calvert (R-CA). Three of the four “toss-up” California Republican-represented districts have a net Democratic partisan voting index.

On the Democratic side, 10 seats are rated as a “toss-up,” with five represented by freshman members of Congress and two not having the incumbent running for reelection. The two open seats are in Michigan and are represented by Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who is running for Senate, and Dan Kildee (D-MI).

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Seven of the 10 seats rated as a “toss-up” represented by Democrats are rated as having a net Republican partisan voting index.

Outside the 24 “toss-up” seats, 31 are rated as likely or lean Democratic, and 19 are rated as likely or lean Republican. The remaining 361 seats are rated by the outlet as solid Democratic or Republican, with 191 being solidly rated as going to the GOP and 170 being solidly rated as going to Democrats.