Virginia 2023 elections: A look at vulnerable races in the state ahead of November

Virginia is holding elections for all 140 seats of the state’s legislature in November, and early voting is already underway across the state. In the state, certain seats are considered more vulnerable than others.

A lot is at stake in the election for both parties — Republicans hope to hold their majority in the House of Delegates and flip the slim Democratic majority in the state Senate. It could also give early notions about the future of early and absentee voting for the Republican Party ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

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Here is a look at three of the most vulnerable races to keep an eye on in November.

Steve Helber/AP

Senate District 16:

The most vulnerable region in Virginia for Republicans is in Henrico County, a suburb of Richmond. The county includes Senate District 16, where incumbent Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, a doctor, faces Democratic Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg.

The most prominent topic for the district is abortion, which is one of the most divisive topics for candidates. Virginia has not imposed restrictions on the procedure in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA), however, has recommended a 15-week ban on abortions with exceptions for incest, rape, and danger to the life of the mother. It is currently legal until the third trimester.

Dunnavant said she supports the 15-week ban but added that there should also be an exception for “severe fetal anomalies.” VanValkenburg has run ads hitting Dunnavant over wanting to “ban abortion.” VanValkenberg is in favor of abortion but said other important concerns in the state are lowering the cost of living and improving education.

House District 57, where nurse practitioner Susanna Gibson, a Democrat, faces retired Republican homebuilder David Owen, is another vulnerable region for Republicans and is also part of Henrico County.

Senate District 31

Former CIA agent and Democratic prosecutor Russet Perry is facing Republican entrepreneur Juan Pablo Segura for the open seat in District 31, which does not have an incumbent due to redistricting. Both candidates in the northern Virginia race have exceeded expectations when it comes to fundraising in the competitive district — they’ve raised a combined total of nearly $2 million.

The district is rated as a toss-up because neither candidate is an incumbent and because Youngkin won the district in 2021 but Democrats won the district in 2022. The current senator for the region is Democrat Barbara Favola, who was redrawn into District 40.

House District 65

Lee Ware, a Republican, represents District 65 in the House of Delegates but is running to represent District 72. This leaves the seat open for former Del. Joshua Cole, a Democrat, to face Marine Corps veteran Lee Peters, a Republican, for the seat.

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The seat is considered vulnerable because a Republican is vacating the position and Cole narrowly lost the seat in the last election. Youngkin did win the area in 2021, alongside Ware, but it has gone to the Democrats in other elections.

Peters, who is a law enforcement officer, has placed public safety at the forefront of his campaign. Cole has focused on abortion, which he claims should be a decision between a “woman and her doctor.” Peters said he supports an abortion ban.