Virginia Democrats aren’t campaigning against Youngkin ahead of Tuesday elections

Virginia Republicans are looking to flip the state legislature, turning the government into a GOP trifecta in next week’s pivotal statewide elections, while Democrats are hoping to hold on to control of the state Senate and take control of the House of Delegates.

But as Democratic candidates campaign throughout the commonwealth, they aren’t pointing to Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) as a reason to vote blue, and in some cases, they are even campaigning on his agenda and their willingness to work with him.

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The commonwealth has been considered blue and maybe purple in recent years, but certainly not red. And Democrats may have dismissed the possibility of a Republican trifecta in Virginia’s government, given the fact that both of its U.S. senators are Democrats and its previous governor was one as well.

But with Youngkin at the helm, Republicans in Virginia have been making a concerted push for voters to turn out in the traditionally low-enthusiasm off-year 2023 elections. Youngkin’s PAC, Spirit of Virginia, has sponsored a multimillion-dollar “Secure Your Vote Virginia” initiative since July, encouraging Virginians to vote early and absentee for Republicans and providing them with easily accessible voting resources.

As Democratic candidates fight for seats in the increasingly competitive races, they aren’t tying their Republican opponents to Youngkin the way national Democrats pin national Republicans to former President Donald Trump. Instead, some are leaving him out. Others, however, are actually campaigning on Youngkin’s record and on his popularity.

In mailers obtained by the Washington Examiner, Democratic Del. Rodney Willett stressed his bipartisanship, mentioning his plan to work with Youngkin. “I’ll always work with Glenn Youngkin and Republicans as well as members of my own party if it means getting things done for Virginians,” Willett said in a mailer from the Democratic Party of Virginia.

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Another mailer called him “a bipartisan leader who works across the aisle,” adding, “He has worked with Gov. Youngkin to pass legislation to support veterans and active-duty military and their families, and to expand access to mental health support services and veteran suicide prevention.”

But he isn’t competing for a Republican district. Willett is running in House 58th District, which is rated as “leans Democratic” by the Virginia Public Access Project and went for former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe by nearly 5 points in the 2021 gubernatorial election. Additionally, 58th District voters opted for Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections by 7 points.

Another Democratic incumbent, state Sen. Monty Mason has been accused of campaigning not only on Youngkin’s record but in the same style as the Republican governor.

“The VA Dems in close districts have figured out their strategy — just run as Glenn Youngkin on Glenn Youngkin’s agenda. Brilliant!” wrote Republican strategist Will Ritter on X, formerly Twitter.

In the ad shared by Ritter, Mason touts “cutting the grocery tax,” lowering taxes, and giving raises to teachers — all Youngkin agenda items. Ritter pointed out the resemblance of Mason’s video ad to those of Youngkin, specifically pointing to the quick cuts. The ad shares other similarities with Youngkin ads, including the font choice and use.

Unlike Willett, Mason is in a more uncertain. State Senate District 24 is considered “competitive” by the VPAP and was won by Youngkin in 2021 by just 3 points. However, it swung for Democratic candidates in the 2022 midterms by just over a point.

On the other hand, the Republican candidates in Virginia’s statewide races are voluntarily associating themselves with the governor, even featuring him in video ads. Incumbent Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, who is running in a “Leans Democratic” district, which went for McAuliffe by over 6 points in 2021, is leveraging her relationship with Youngkin despite the partisan demographics of District 16. In a video with Dunnavant, Youngkin called the state senator an “MVP,” urging voters to cast their ballots for her.

Willett’s opponent, Republican Riley Shaia, is also leaning on Youngkin in the relatively blue district. The governor made an appearance in one of her ads last month, in which he told viewers, “To keep Virginia the best place to live, work, and raise a family, I need you to vote for Riley Shaia.”

As to why Democrats, even in less competitive districts, would try to link themselves to Youngkin and why Republicans at a disadvantage would do the same, Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center research director, said, “Governor Youngkin is relatively popular among Virginia voters. As of our last Wason poll, his approval rating was 55% among Virginia likely voters.”

“I would also say that the way in which the 2021 gubernatorial election played out suggested that going after Youngkin as a MAGA Republican was not a winning strategy for Democrats, and they learned something from that,” she continued.

Parker Slaybaugh, executive director of Founders Insight, expressed a similar sentiment, saying, “The data has continually shown that Gov. Youngkin is widely popular statewide, but what candidates are likely paying the most attention to is just how popular he is amongst independents.”

“Our last poll showed Youngkin with very strong (62%) approval amongst independents,” he noted.

Slaybaugh also said, “Over the two months since Labor Day, with tens of millions of dollars in ad money having been spent, Youngkin approvals have only risen while President Biden’s have gone down.” He pointed to this as the reason “many Republicans [are] touting Youngkin’s support and Democrats in close races [are] running ads talking about how they have worked or will work with Gov. Youngkin.”

Some Democratic strategists agreed that the party’s candidates aren’t looking to make the race a referendum on Youngkin. If anything, Democratic strategist Marshall Cohen said, “Youngkin has been the one trying to insert himself in these races — holding rallies and running ads to promote himself.”

According to fellow strategist Josh Schwerin, abortion in the post-Dobbs era has become “the central issue in the campaign and one that [Youngkin] is desperately trying to overcome with massive amounts of cash.”

He agreed Youngkin is “promoting himself with ads and holding rallies across the state,” thereby “making sure this election is very much about him and the consequences if he has total control of the state government.”

“From what I’ve seen, the Democratic message has been squarely focused on issues people care about, particularly reproductive rights,” Cohen added.

As to why Youngkin wasn’t being used as the boogeyman that Trump has been, Democratic strategist Max Burns said, “When the issues are this blatant, it doesn’t matter if Glenn Youngkin has no personality.”

Other Democratic strategists suggested Youngkin’s presence or lack thereof in Democratic ads was simply due to the overwhelming importance of abortion policy, particularly in Virginia. “I think that abortion has proven to be” a winning platform for Democrats, one Democratic campaign strategist said. It’s “something that brings Democrats out to vote,” they said.

“I don’t think it’s safe to assume that there is a business about not using Youngkin because he’s popular,” they added. According to the strategist, perhaps ads campaigning against Youngkin would be ineffective, but such a strategy is untested.

Fellow strategist Antjuan Seawright said the choice of whether or not to use Youngkin as a sticking point in campaigns comes down to “different strokes for different folk.” He explained that “different communities have different interests.”

He added that “extremism is not relegated to a person” but rather is “an ongoing effort and a buffet of ideas that now make up the agenda.”

Democratic strategist Kaivan Shroff agreed with this sentiment, saying, “It’s less about one person or issue and more about the idea that there is now a slate of Trump-inspired anti-Democratic MAGA extremist voices that have taken control of the Republican Party both locally and nationally.”

Tucker Martin, once communication director to former Republican Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, said “I think they know the governor is popular, and so why spend any time trying to go after him?”

Martin added, “The tell is in what you want to talk about, what you don’t want to talk about.”

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Martin explained Republicans see President Joe Biden’s relatively poor approval ratings in the state as an opportunity, while Democratic candidates are taking cues from Youngkin’s high approval to either steer clear of him or project a centrist or bipartisan image alongside him.

Virginia’s statewide elections will take place Tuesday, and as of Nov. 3, 648,023 early votes and absentee votes were recorded.