Still, their battle will be seen as one of the first major referendums on President Donald Trump‘s second administration, along with the New Jersey gubernatorial race, and an early preview of the 2026 midterm elections.

Spanberger, a former CIA officer, is heading into the final stretch of the cycle with the Center for Politics’s Crystal Ball rating the election as “likely Democratic” after previously predicting the race “leans Democratic.” 

The Democratic gubernatorial candidate has consistently led in polling and has more than three times the amount of money as her competitor. Spanberger had $15.2 million cash on hand after the June reporting period, in contrast to the $4.6 million cash on hand that Earle-Sears had. According to a late August report from AdImpact, Spanberger had $16 million more than Earle-Sears in spending and future reservations.

Spanberger also secured the backing of the Virginia Police Benevolent Association, which backed Youngkin during his 2021 campaign for governor, over Earle-Sears.

The Spanberger campaign needs to “run from behind, even though they are today at a comfortable advantage,” said David Ramadan, a former Republican state delegate in Virginia and professor at the Schar School at George Mason University. “No campaign ever, regardless of advantage and regardless of party ID, should run comfortably; they should always run from behind.”

The lieutenant governor has taken notable steps to reshape a campaign that struggled throughout the spring and into the summer.

In July, Earle-Sears parted ways with her campaign manager, Will Archer, who lacked the necessary political experience to guide her campaign effectively. Archer was instead moved into a voter turnout position on the campaign. Earle-Sears has also narrowed the double-digit polling gap between her and Spanberger.

A Virginia Commonwealth University poll released in July showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by 12 points, 49%-37%. However, an August poll from Roanoke College showed Spanberger leading by just seven points, 46%-39%.

“We have to keep in mind that Youngkin won by less than 2%. But that does mean that Virginia is not a deep blue state, despite what some people might think,” David Richards, a political science professor at the University of Lynchburg, said about the narrowed polling gap.

As people begin to make up their minds, the polls are “coming more in line with what we’ve seen before,” Richards continued. “Does that mean Winsome Earle-Sears is going to win by 2%? I don’t think so, but it means that the race is going to be a lot closer than those polls that showed Spanberger ahead by 14 points.”

VIRGINIA GOVERNOR’S RACE TIGHTENS, GOP ‘COMES HOME’ TO EARLE-SEARS

Brian Kirwin, a Virginia GOP strategist, praised the Earle-Sears campaign for its effort to change course.

“What you always want to have happen when there’s a major campaign shake-up is you want to see an improvement right out of the gate of how the campaign is operating, and it’s been like a whole new campaign,” he said. “The message has been focused.”

Earle-Sears also went on the offensive after a Democratic activist targeted her with a racist sign during an Arlington County school board meeting. The sign, which said, “Hey Winsome, if trans can’t share your bathroom, then blacks can’t share my water fountain,” sparked outrage and even condemnation from Spanberger.

The incident prompted Robert Johnson, the billionaire co-founder of Black Entertainment Television, to donate $500,000 to Earle-Sears.

“It really set the Democrats’ messaging back,” Kirwin said. “And they were really on defense for the first time this year, and they didn’t play it very well.”

Both candidates have leaned into the key issues they think will galvanize voters in their digital and television advertisements. Spanberger has tied Earle-Sears to Trump’s decimation of the federal workforce, which makes up a sizable portion of the Old Dominion’s economy, and her support of his “big, beautiful bill,” the major domestic legislation that could take Medicaid access away from some Americans. Earle-Sears has attacked Spanberger over transgender bathroom policies in schools and attempted to link her to Democratic socialist and New York mayoral contender Zohran Mamdani.

However, Spanberger has a history of eschewing the far-left members of the Democratic Party and attempting to portray herself as a centrist Democrat. In late June, she said it was “ridiculous” to tie her to the New York mayoral candidate.

“That’s a pretty ridiculous linkage, but I’ll say that I don’t begin to pretend like I know anything about New York politics,” Spanberger told reporters.

Spanberger has instead embarked on a tour of Virginia, with a focus on shoring up African American voters who could help boost her to the governor’s mansion. She spent Labor Day at Rep. Bobby Scott’s (D-VA) annual cookout, and last month the Democratic candidate met with black Virginians and faith leaders at seven different churches. She also has the backing of high-profile black leaders, including state Senate President Pro Tempore L. Louise Lucas and Virginia House of Delegates Speaker Don Scott.

“As Abigail travels across the Commonwealth, she is focused on the issues that matter to Virginians — lowering costs, creating good-paying jobs, and strengthening our public schools — and as the next Governor of Virginia, she will continue to make the safety of Virginians her top priority,” said TaNisha Cameron, a campaign spokeswoman.

“That’s exactly why Abigail earned the Virginia Police Benevolent Association’s endorsement in this year’s campaign for Governor,” Cameron continued. “Virginians trust Abigail to always put them first, and her campaign will be relentless in sharing her vision over the next two months ahead of victory on Nov. 4.”

Part of the problem Earle-Sears is facing is “the challenge of running as a Republican in a state that has been significantly impacted by President Trump’s federal cutbacks,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington.

The loss of federal workers in northern Virginia also has a wide-reaching impact on the industries that support those workers, including restaurant workers and contractors, and on the rest of Virginia’s tax base.

“In many ways, it’s the mirror image of four years ago. “Angry voters are more likely to turn out in Virginia gubernatorial elections,” Farnsworth said. “And four years ago, the people who were mad at a Democratic president were energized in the same way that people this year who are mad at a Republican president are the ones who are most energized.”

Democrats are betting that anger against Trump’s handling of the economy will boost Spanberger and the party back to power.

“Just this morning, of course, we learned that job growth under Republicans has slowed to a crawl, and that in June, the economy actually lost jobs, which is the first time this has happened since the last time Donald Trump was president well, imagine that,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin told reporters on Friday. “The American people are pissed off. They’re struggling to make ends meet in Trump’s economy. And as we channel this anger, Democrats have been winning up and down the ballot.”

Trump has not yet weighed in on the Virginia race besides saying he may endorse Earle-Sears.

“Yeah, I would,” Trump said when asked by the Washington Examiner about his endorsement. Notably, the president has already endorsed Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in New Jersey.

Spanberger and Earle-Sears will debate each other for the first and only time during the election cycle on Oct. 9 at Norfolk State University, nearly three weeks after early voting starts in Virginia.

‘CRYSTAL BALL’ MOVES VIRGINIA GOVERNOR RACE TO ‘LIKELY DEMOCRAT’ IN BOOST FOR SPANBERGER

“It’s going to be good to see them debate. It’ll probably help some people who aren’t paying attention, clarify what they think of the candidates,” Richards said. “But I can’t see it having a huge impact on the race.”

However, Richards also cautioned that with Youngkin’s debate performance in 2021, during which he saw momentum build in his defense of parental rights, “You just need a couple thousand people to say: ‘Oh, wow, I was going to vote one way, or I wasn’t going to vote, now I’m going to go vote.’ And that might be enough.”