Milton’s strength

On Sunday morning, Milton was only a tropical storm. However, after growing by more than 60 mph within a 24-hour period, it upgraded to a Category 3 by 7 a.m. Monday morning. Just two hours later, Milton became a Category 4. The storm is growing rapidly, building up wind speeds of 150 mph. It is expected to reach peak intensity Tuesday morning before weakening prior to landfall.

Expected landfall

The storm is anticipated to make landfall Wednesday evening in Florida’s Pinellas County or Hillsborough County as a Category 3, prompting widespread evacuation orders around Tampa Bay for Floridians reeling from Hurricane Helene’s destruction.

Power in Orlando is not guaranteed as the storm passes through the middle of the state, but cities further inland are considered safer destinations for evacuations as Milton is expected to weaken to a Category 1 or 2 as it crosses over central Florida on Thursday before dropping back to a tropical storm as it continues east over the Atlantic Ocean.

Milton’s risks

Storm surges are the most dangerous aspect of this storm, with the worst occurring just south of the storm’s center and amounting to 10 to 15 feet. It’s unknown where in Florida the storm surges will hit the hardest. Storm surge warnings and hurricane watches have been issued along all of Florida’s western coast.

The storm is also expected to bring more rain to the state, dumping up to 15 inches in parts of the Florida Keys and peninsula, making flash floods a serious risk. High wind speeds are also a threat, as many of the downed trees and power lines caused by Helene pose a risk for flying debris.

The National Weather Service office in the Tampa Bay area said the storm could bring “catastrophic wind damage” to the counties of Sarasota, Pinellas, and Lee.

Preparation

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has issued emergency declarations for 51 counties. Some areas are evacuating Monday, including the coastal city of Anna Maria near Tampa and long-term care facilities in Pinellas County. Officials are encouraging all plans for evacuation regardless of whether an order has been issued.

“Residents should begin finalizing their disaster plans, and if your plan calls for you to evacuate, you should do so today,” said Kevin Guthrie, executive director for the Florida Division of Emergency Management, in a Monday press conference. “I would highly recommend if anybody has the means to do so, if you have the capability of going to a hotel or staying with friends or families, get on the road today, wherever that might be.”

Multiple shelters will open Monday for those who are unable to evacuate fully. Polk County, which is east of Tampa, has listed shelters where food and water will be provided that will be operational for residents to wait out the storm. Special needs shelters have begun calling people off their special needs registries to take them to their designated shelters.

“There’s hoteling in Orlando. If you are 100% going to be dependent on power and you have the means to do so, you may wanna consider Jacksonville,” Guthrie said. “It’s likely Jacksonville will not experience any power outage, so if you’ve got to be guaranteed power and you have the financial means, you may wanna consider something further away.”

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This season’s storms

Milton’s path is unusual. Since 1850, only two other storms have formed in the Gulf’s Bay and made landfall on the west coast of Florida. For the first time ever, there have been three simultaneous storms in the Atlantic post-September: Kirk, Leslie, and Milton.

Helene’s damage is still affecting the southeast U.S., accumulating a death toll of 230 people. With more rain and storm surges to come, it’s vital for Florida residents to shelter from Milton in any way they can.