Nebraska’s Senate seats have long been uncompetitive for Republicans as the last time a Democrat was elected to represent the state in the upper chamber was 2006. As a result, Republicans didn’t expect to spend much time or resources in the Cornhusker State as they focused on current vulnerable seats that are likely to flip in their favor and give them the Senate majority. 

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A shift began after the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the Senate race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” in late September. That prompted national Republicans to pour millions of dollars into the race and divert some resources to ensure they don’t lose a safe seat at the expense of gaining others. 

Osborn garnered national attention after pitching himself as an outsider candidate and someone deeply familiar with the working class. While speaking with supporters at a campaign rally in Omaha on Sunday, Osborn pointed to his experience leading the Kellogg’s labor strike as a union leader in 2021, arguing he was motivated by blue-collar concerns rather than party-line issues. 

“That’s not the way I really saw my world. I’ve been a registered independent from the time I could vote, and I didn’t see men or women, or black or white, or Republican or Democrat on a picket line,” Osborn said. “I just saw people that wanted to go to work for a fair wage with some decent benefits.”

But even if Osborn is able to defeat Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) and wrest the seat away from GOP control, it won’t be a total win for Democrats. Osborn has repeatedly said he wouldn’t caucus with either party — which could make him a powerful voice in the Senate akin to how Sens. Joe Manchin (I-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) have wielded outsize influence over the upper chamber. 

“I’m a true independent, and I’ve said over and over again that I’m not caucusing with the Democrats,” Osborn told Politico last week. “Chuck Schumer is going to be in for a rude awakening if he thinks I’m taking orders from him.”

Osborn’s allies have also hammered that message to supporters, arguing that he would be an independent voice in the Senate if elected. 

“When he gets to Congress, he won’t eat lunch with the Democrats. He won’t eat lunch with the Republicans,” actor Paul Scheer told a group of Osborn supporters at the Sunday rally in Omaha. “He’ll eat lunch all alone.”

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Although Osborn has sought to distance himself from Democrats, the independent candidate has faced criticism he still isn’t conservative enough to represent the deep-red state of Nebraska. 

“I think [voters] see that he’s saying he’s an independent but then in his own words, he also has a lot of things that he supports that conservatives in Nebraska don’t support,” Fischer told the Washington Examiner. “We’ve been trying to get that out to define him [in our ads] so people do realize that he’s just trying to fool Nebraska.”

“We are a red state. Democrats don’t win statewide,” she added. “That’s why he’s running as an independent.”

Still, Osborn has tied himself to former President Donald Trump on some key issues to paint himself as a middle-of-the-road candidate. In one ad that aired statewide, Osborn aligned himself with the former president on issues such as the border and foreign policy, claiming, “They’ve tried to stop Trump just like they’re trying to stop me.”

But that may not be enough to convince voters, especially after, as Fischer pointed out, Trump endorsed her over Osborn. 

Fischer likened Osborn’s strategy to that of some vulnerable Democrats who have tied themselves to Trump in recent ads in states where the former president may be outperforming Vice President Kamala Harris in the polls. 

“Whether it’s [Sen. Tammy] Baldwin or [Sens.] Bob Casey [and] Sherrod Brown — they’re all trying to tie themselves to President Trump. Nebraskans aren’t fooled by that,” Fischer said. “My opponent has an ad saying he’s with Trump on the border bill. President Trump opposed that border bill, and Dan Osborn’s attacking me because I opposed it.”

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“Yeah, whoever’s advising him — not good,” Fischer added. 

Recent polling shows a tight race between the two candidates, with surveys over the last month alternating between which campaign holds the upper hand. National averages show Fischer leading Osborn by 3 points, giving the GOP incumbent some breathing room in the last few days of the 2024 cycle.