The 2024 presidential race will likely be decided by seven swing states, accounting for less than one-fifth of the United States population.
The swing states former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are eyeing to capture this year, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are far fewer in number than in previous elections.
“Each vote everywhere counts, but the 61 million Americans living in the seven battlegrounds will decide who’s president,” said Karl Rove, former White House chief of staff under President George W. Bush.
Having such a focused electoral map means a lot of money will be spent by both parties vying to flip undecided voters there. Trump’s campaign lags behind Biden’s in fundraising — Trump ended February with $33.5 million cash on hand, compared to Biden’s $77 million. This cash translates into TV ads, staffers, and mail pamphlets that campaigns will use to reach swing state voters. Being behind in this aspect spells trouble for Trump and Republicans.
Besides those seven swing states, most states vote in a fairly uniform fashion from election to election. Biden can count on 20 states and the District of Columbia voting Democratic, giving him 226 electoral votes, and Trump can count on 24 states with 219 electors voting Republican.
Biden needs 45 of these seven states’ electoral votes, while Trump needs 51 to pass the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.
Of those swing states, five have Democratic governors, signaling a move to the left in recent years.
In Arizona, where a third of voters are independents, Biden won in 2020, marking the first time the Grand Canyon State voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since then-President Bill Clinton in 1996. Since 2018, the state has also elected two Democratic senators to office, though Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) has since left the party.
The Biden campaign is eyeing North Carolina as a state within reach to flip blue in 2024 as then-Sen. Barack Obama did in 2008. In seven of the last eight gubernatorial elections, North Carolina has voted Democrats into office, proving they can win statewide elections.
It is difficult to tell if Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC), the Republican front-runner who has been criticized for his remarks about the LGBT community, will be popular statewide. Extreme candidates were unpopular in past years — Arizona rejected Kari Lake for governor in 2022, opting to elect Democrat Katie Hobbs instead. Lake is running for Senate this year.
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Down-ballot races also helped Biden in 2020. In Georgia, campaigning alongside Raphel Warnock and Jon Ossoff for Senate flipped the state for the first time since 1996. In Arizona, campaigning alongside Mark Kelly also helped flip that state. Biden still managed to switch Wisconsin in his favor, despite the reelection of Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), highlighting the truly purple nature of some swing states.
In other recent elections, the number of swing states was much higher, which means elections in these seven will have large consequences nationwide. In the 2000 election, George W. Bush and Al Gore fought for 21 states. The 2016 election had 11 swing states.