Though most eyes on Tuesday will be on the New Hampshire Republican primary, Democrats are holding their breath as President Joe Biden‘s campaign viability is put to the test for the first time. He can’t afford to lose this primary — but he also can’t win.
The situation of the Democratic presidential primary is unprecedented, as it will not officially count for anything. Because the Democratic National Committee replaced the Granite State’s first-in-the-nation status with South Carolina, it will not award delegates to anyone who participates in the unsanctioned primary on Tuesday.
Now, hovering over Biden are two major concerns: losing the primary or losing the legitimacy that his candidacy is as strong as he has boasted.
Biden, under DNC rules, will not appear on the ballot on Tuesday, instead relying on a write-in effort to secure the win. This immediately put him at a disadvantage with New Hampshire Democrats who were “pissed off” that the president and DNC replaced them with South Carolina. He also couldn’t campaign or spend money in the state without flouting DNC rules, forcing the write-in effort to promote the president with what little resources it had.
The primary also puts Biden’s campaign strategy, which he has relied on all cycle, to the test: that Democrats will rally behind Biden to keep former President Donald Trump out of the White House.
Even if Biden wins the primary, he won’t receive any delegates to boost him at the nominating convention in August. However, the perception among voters built by a strong or weak performance will be just as, if not more, important.
Biden’s performance against his challengers, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and Marianne Williamson, who will be listed on the ballot, will be closely watched. If Biden does not secure a strong lead in the New Hampshire primary, it is likely to put his already wary supporters and donors on edge even more.
Though Phillips has little chance of winning in the state, and he knows it, he is aiming for a significant portion of votes to prove a point.
“If we’re in the 20s, that would be extraordinary,” Phillips told NBC News.
That could spell disaster for Biden. If he does not reach the 81% or 84% won by former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, respectively, Biden should be disappointed, Phillips said.
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“If his numbers are below that, I think it’s just more evidence of the fact that Democrats are deluded and we need a real competition, not a coronation,” Phillips told reporters over the weekend.
Though polling shows Biden as the clear favorite among Democrats in New Hampshire, his campaign has to take a leap of faith and hope that they turn out for a primary that even the DNC has called “meaningless” — much to the anger of people like New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella, who likened the committee’s words to “voter suppression.“