As Democrats question whether President Joe Biden should stay at the top of the ticket, Republicans find themselves in a state of unity around former President Donald Trump heading into the July 15 national convention.
It’s a rare period of relative calm compared to the turbulence that has rocked the Republican Party since Trump’s rise and double impeachments. Republicans have ousted a House speaker, stared down infighting, and contended with failed votes that can be traced back to the outsize influence of Trump on nearly every decision of the party.
Trump has had a particularly good few days in his bid for a second term. Biden’s dismal performance at Thursday’s debate continues to confront deeper doubts among Democrats about electing an 81-year-old and his fitness for office. Days later, a Supreme Court decision limited the scope of the prosecution against Trump over his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, giving him a large swath of immunity from any criminal prosecution.
Despite a competitive and crowded primary season, Trump’s conviction of 34 felony charges last month, and several criminal cases, the presumptive GOP nominee has managed to quiet some of his loudest critics as he mounts a historic comeback to the White House.
“The Supreme Court ruling clearly helped calm fears,” said Saul Anuzis, a former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party and a GOP consultant.
A couple of weeks ago, Trump huddled with Republicans on Capitol Hill in an effort to push GOP members to unify behind him ahead of the convention. In recent months, more Senate Republicans, including some who had avoided weighing in, said they were supporting Trump’s reelection run.
“There’s this love affair that Republicans — the base of Republicans have right now for Trump that just has never existed for Biden,” a GOP operative speaking on the condition of anonymity said. “They are just really committed to their candidate, and I think that’s something Republicans have felt for Trump for quite some time.”
“I don’t think Democrats ever really had that emotional connection to Joe Biden in nearly the same way,” the person added.
Some of Trump’s GOP critics remain in Congress, but the number of them is dwindling. Of the 10 House GOP members who voted to impeach Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection, only two remain in office, Reps. Dan Newhouse (R-WA) and David Valadao (R-CA). Of the seven senators who voted to impeach Trump, only three remain since Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) is retiring at the end of his term.
The Senate Republicans who often spoke out against Trump are long gone. Former Sens. Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, Lamar Alexander, Pat Toomey, Rob Portman, and Roy Blunt retired. Former Sen. John McCain, who often clashed with Trump, died from cancer in 2018. Former Rep. Paul Ryan, who often feuded with Trump as House speaker, has vowed not to vote for Trump, but his influence has diminished in the party since he left Congress after the 2018 election.
Even the critics who remain in Congress will be substantially less powerful, such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who decided he would step down as GOP leader in November. He has said he will support Trump in an effort to unify the party and in the hopes of increasing the likelihood Republicans will take back the Senate. While Republicans and Democrats have had difficulty unifying their members around large bills when they have had control of the House, if Trump wins a second term, he will be surrounded by more allies and loyalists in the party.
“You have to ask yourself: How many true allies of the agenda existed in the United States Capitol in January 2017, and how many will exist in January of 2025?” Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), a top prospect to become Trump’s vice president, said in an interview with Axios.
“You have a Republican Party that, in some ways, was divided against itself in January of 2017, I think now it recognizes that Trump is effectively the leader of the party. And you’ll see that in governing style and certainly in agenda,” Vance added.
A large part of Trump’s first term was characterized by political obstacles he faced when trying to implement his agenda. Now, those guardrails have disappeared or have been largely reshaped to his advantage.
“If the polls continue to move in Trump’s direction, Republicans should pick up the Senate and hold the House,” Anuzis said. “I would suspect a honeymoon period where much of Trump’s agenda will move quickly.”
“The real question is how long will that honeymoon continue until Republicans start maneuvering for 2028,” he added.
Trump has big plans for his second term if he is elected. He has promised mass deportations of millions of migrants. He would work to dismantle many of the federal rules imposed under Biden should Republicans gain control of the government in November. He has been talking about slapping 10% tariffs on most imported goods.
Republican lawmakers are already putting plans into motion to extend the tax cuts put in place by their tax reform bill in 2017, should Trump be reelected. Many are considering ways they could utilize reconciliation as a way to implement cuts to mandatory government spending and boost defense spending.
“I think if Trump is reelected, he will feel very emboldened, very empowered, very much like he has a mandate, and I wouldn’t expect him to just mark four years of time. It’ll be very aggressive,” a different Republican strategist said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
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“With the convention coming up, I’d definitely rather be in our position right now. There’s a sense of unity and calm, whereas, on the other side, it seems like pure chaos and dysfunction. That is not typical of an incumbent president’s party,” the Republican strategist said.
A growing number of prominent Democrats are calling for Biden to bow out of the race against Trump after his debate performance. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) became the first sitting member of Congress to say Biden should step down on Tuesday. The president and his campaign remain defiant and are pressing ahead.