Young voters are less enthusiastic for the 2024 election but still favor Biden over Trump: Poll

Young voters are showing a decline in enthusiasm about voting in the 2024 election compared to prior years but continue to favor President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump, according to a new survey.

A poll released Tuesday from the Institute of Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School reports 49% of likely voters ages 18-29 say they will “definitely” vote in the election for president next year. That’s a decrease from those who reported they would “definitely be voting” in the last presidential election, conducted during fall 2019.

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“The bad news is that fewer young people intend to vote in this election compared to the Biden-Trump election of 2020,” IOP Polling Director John Della Volpe said. “The good news is there’s still time, and we know what Gen Z and young millennials want to see and hear. They want evidence that democracy works, that government can address our challenges, and that there’s a meaningful difference between the two parties.”

The 2020 election had the highest voter turnout of the 21st century, with young voters’ support delivering Biden to the White House in key states. The 2020 turnout for voters under 30 was 54.1%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, an increase from 46.1% in 2016.

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Republicans could see a large decline in voter turnout as indicated by the poll. Among 26% of young voters who are registered with the Republican Party, 66% said they would “definitely vote” in 2019, compared to 56% in fall 2023. Young Democrats saw a slight decline in enthusiasm among the 35% registered; 68% said they would “definitely vote” in fall 2019, and 66% reported the same in fall 2023. Another decline can be attributed to younger voters who identify as independent or unaffiliated with a major party; 41% said they would be voting in fall 2019, and only 31% reported they will “definitely vote” next year in fall 2024.

While Biden’s economic and foreign policy plans have been polling poorly, threatening his reelection, voters under 30 still favor the Democratic president over Trump by 11 points, 41% to 30%, respectively. The survey shows 13% of young voters are undecided, and 15% say they would not vote.