President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are unofficially beginning their reelection campaign in Virginia on Tuesday with one big goal: to stop Virginia from turning on them on Election Day.
Virginia’s turn away from Biden, which started when the state shocked the nation with the election of Republican investor Glenn Youngkin for governor in 2021, has continued, according to a new survey.
In 2020, Biden beat former President Donald Trump in Virginia by over 10 points. But a new Virginia Commonwealth University poll shows Trump trailing by just 3 points. Should former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley win the GOP nomination, the survey shows she would beat Biden, 43%-38%.
It followed a Mason-Dixon survey earlier this month that also showed a Biden-Trump tightening. In that one, Biden leads Trump 49% to 43%.
The likely reasons for Virginia trending away from a Biden reelection are the president’s unpopularity and Youngkin’s continued approval by commonwealth voters.
The new survey found that Biden has lost ground since VCU’s last poll in August. “Thirty-seven percent of Virginians say that they approve of Joe Biden’s handling of his job as president, with 54% disapproving. This is a two-point drop (down from 39%) compared to his approval rating in the August 2023 Commonwealth Poll,” the survey analysis said.
The poll also found another big problem for Biden. He is underwater with independents, 30% approving and 37% disapproving.
Then, there’s Youngkin, who beat former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who was backed by Biden in 2021.
The survey found that Youngkin continues to surge in popularity. Since August, VCU said, Youngkin’s approval rating has increased to 54%, up 5 points. Just 31% disapprove of his job performance.
The survey could give a boost to Youngkin in Trump circles that are already focused on who should be the former president’s running mate.
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But there is hope for Democrats in the fall. The poll found that voters are focused on reproductive rights as one of their biggest issues. Some analysts claim the focus on abortion rights by Democrats in the commonwealth’s fall elections gave them the winning edge, which is why Biden and Harris are in Manassas on Tuesday to talk up abortion.
“When asked what the most important reason for their voting was in the November 2023 election, Virginians cited women’s reproductive rights (21%) and education (19%) as their primary reasons,” the survey analysis said.