Kari Lake to launch Arizona Senate bid with early lead in three-way race: Poll

EXCLUSIVE — Kari Lake is set to jump into the Arizona Senate race on Tuesday, with the former gubernatorial candidate showing a strong lead in early polling for a hypothetical three-way race between herself, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego, and incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).

In a race that includes all three candidates, Lake leads the field with 37% support compared to 33% who said they would back Gallego, according to internal polling conducted by National Research Inc. that was first obtained by the Washington Examiner. Another 19% said they’d reelect Sinema while another 10% of voters remain undecided.

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Lake’s lead is largely due to a split Democratic vote between Gallego and Sinema that could occur if all three candidates run on the general ballot next year. However, Sinema has not announced whether she intends to run for reelection, making things slightly more difficult for Lake should she choose to resign.

In a hypothetical two-way race between Lake and Gallego, both candidates are polling at 44% with 12% of voters still undecided, the poll shows. However, Lake is more favorable among independents as 43% of the voting bloc said they’d prefer her over 39% who said the same for Gallego — possibly giving her an edge in the critical battleground state.

The polling comes as Lake prepares to launch her highly anticipated Senate bid on Tuesday in what is expected to be one of the most competitive races of the 2024 cycle. The election took on new significance late last year after Sinema announced she would be leaving the Democratic Party to instead identify as an independent, opening the door for a three-way race in a vital swing state.

National Republicans have raised questions about how competitive Lake will be in the race and are said to be waiting to see before devoting significant resources to Arizona in a bid to take back the Senate majority. Most public polling has shown Lake trailing and she narrowly lost the governor’s race last year, but refused to concede.

A poll by Democratic firm showed Gallego leading Lake with Sinema trailing in third place.

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Lake is expected to make the announcement during a rally on Tuesday evening in Scottsdale, Arizona.

The National Research poll surveyed 400 likely voters in Arizona between Oct. 7-9 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.